MACRO & FED
Biztoc.com
07 Oct 2026 · 19:00
Why The Stock Market Could March Higher Even if Earnings Growth Slows
KEY TAKEAWAYS - The U.S. economy is "insulated" from higher interest rates, which could mean a resilient background as the stock market faces other struggles. - Earnings growth is expected to grow, but if …
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- The U.S. economy is "insulated" from higher interest rates, which could mean a resilient background as the stock market faces other struggles.
- Earnings growth is expected to grow, but if it stays sufficiently strong the stock market could co… KEY TAKEAWAYS- The U.S. economy is "insulated" from higher interest rates, which could mean a resilient background as the stock market faces other struggles.- Earnings growth is expected to grow, but…
MACRO & FED
Common Dreams
07 Oct 2026 · 19:00
Thousands March Against Far Right in Brazil Ahead of Runoff Election
Days after elections in which right-wing Brazilian candidates won a significant number of seats and as President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva headed to a runoff with Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro, students on Wednesday marched …
Days after elections in which right-wing Brazilian candidates won a significant number of seats and as President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva headed to a runoff with Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro, students on Wednesday marched through Rio de Janeiro in support of the progressive Lula—and expressed fear over the growing influence of the far right in Brazil.
Thousands of Brazilians joined the student-led demonstrations, where some carried pictures of Bolsonaro made to look like Adolf Hitler and signs that read, "No to the father, no to the son" and "Never again Bolsonaro."
Bolsonaro, a senator who represents the right-wing Liberal Party, is the son of convicted former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year sentence under house arrest for orchestrating a coup attempt after his election loss in 2022. Bolsonaro's supporters stormed government buildings on January 8, 2023, and the former president—a close ally of President Donald Trump—was found guilty of spreading misinformation about the country's voting system and encouraging his supporters to attack the Capitol.
At Wednesday's protest, one supporter of Lula expressed concern for the safety of her transgender wife and remembered the fear many lived with during the coronavirus pandemic, when the elder Bolsonaro refused to take part in basic public health precautions like social distancing and mask-wearing, sent unproven drugs to communities, and spread misinformation about vaccines. Nearly 600,000 people died of Covid-19 across Brazil—the second-highest death toll in the world after the United States.
"I remember my family's lives being at risk during the pandemic," Alice Carneiro told Agence France-Presse in Rio.
Bolsonaro won 47% of the vote on Sunday, while Lula, of the Worker's Party, had 45%. According to an analysis by the Center for Economic and Policy Research in the US, the Brazilian economy saw growth of 8.9% from 2022-25. Lula took office in 2023. His government has passed a new minimum wage law, expanded maternity leave, and increased benefits for low-income families.
The report also notes that high interest rates have raised borrowing costs for households and have increased the rate of delinquency.
Voters will go to the polls for the runoff election on October 25.
Ahead of the first round of voting this week, Lula's campaign accused the Trump administration of interfering in the country's elections.
The US abruptly shut down consular services in Brazil last Friday, citing unspecified "security concerns," and projecting a sense of "instability over the electoral environment,” according to Lula's campaign.
Attorney General Jorge Messias also called for a probe ahead of the election into reports that Trump planned to award $1 million to right-wing groups in Brazil, and Brazilian intelligence officials also briefed French and German diplomats on alleged election interference by the US.
Last year, Trump slapped the country with 40% tariffs, accusing Lula's government of "persecuting" Jair Bolsonaro. The former president's son has pledged to give amnesty to his father and the supporters who took part in the 2023 coup, should he win the election—like Trump, who pardoned January 6, 2021 insurrectionists when he returned to power.
The potential victory of Bolsonaro comes amid a wave of right-wing victories across Latin America, where candidates backed by Trump have won recent elections in Colombia, Chile, and Peru, and the Trump administration has partnered with several governments in joint military operations that officials say are aimed at cracking down on drug trafficking.
The march through Rio de Janeiro also coincided with mass student-led protests across France over cuts to education funding; demonstrations in India against the purging of voter rolls; marches by tens of thousands of people in Spain over housing affordability, sparked by public anger over the eviction of an 87-year-old woman; and protests against proposed budget cuts in Chile.
MACRO & FED
The Times of India
07 Oct 2026 · 19:00
Loans set to get dearer as RBI hikes repo rate after 44 months
File photo: Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra arrives at a press conference in Mumbai (Picture credit: Reuters) RBI raises FY27 growth and inflation projections MUMBAI: In a move that could hurt …
File photo: Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra arrives at a press conference in Mumbai (Picture credit: Reuters)
RBI raises FY27 growth and inflation projections
MUMBAI: In a move that could hurt consumption during the festive season, mortgages and other loans are set to become more expensive, while deposits will start yielding higher returns in a few weeks, with Reserve Bank of India Wednesday announcing a hike in key interest rates.RBI raised the repo rate by a widely expected 25 basis points to 5.5% on Wednesday, its first increase since Feb 2023, as stronger than expected growth and broader price pressures due to escalation of the West Asia conflict prompted the Monetary Policy Committee to unanimously vote for an increase and shift its stance from neutral to "calibrated tightening".The move will raise the EMI on a Rs 1 crore loan over 15 years by around Rs 1,500 a month, or about Rs 1,471 at a base rate of 8.5%.If EMI remains unchanged, the higher rate could extend the loan by about 5.5 to 5.9 months, equivalent to six additional instalments.Clarifying that the calibrated tightening was an indication of future actions, RBI governor Sanjay Malhotra said, "Given the current conditions, rate cuts are off the table in the near term and policy action ahead can only be a rate hike or a pause, depending on the evolving conditions and the outlook."According to SBI chairman CS Setty, the repo rate hike is both a response to inflation and a recognition of the resilience of the Indian economy.“The upward revision in the growth outlook is reassuring, even as geopolitical developments and supply-side pressures including elevated energy prices warrant continued close monitoring,” he said.According to SBI group chief economist Soumya Kanti Ghosh, with inflation currently expected to peak at around 6.8% in Nov 2026, the corresponding peak repo rate could be around 6% in Dec. So, brace for further increase in EMIs. One of the drivers of inflation is crude oil, which RBI estimates will now average $95 a barrel for FY27, up $5 from its earlier estimate after global prices increased from $82 a barrel in July to around $116 per barrel in Sept.While banks are expected to take a few weeks to revise their fixed deposit rates as they are flush with funds from the special NRI deposit scheme, Bajaj Finance revised its FD rates by up to 40 basis points, taking rates for senior citizens up to 8.15%.RBI raised its 2026-27 real GDP growth forecast by 40 basis points from the Aug review to 7.1%, driven largely by a sharp revision in Q2 growth to 7.2% from 6.4%. The Q3 forecast was also raised, while the Q4 projection was unchanged.It also raised this year’s inflation forecast from 5% to 5.2%, with all quarterly forecasts revised higher; Q1 FY28 saw the biggest increase, at 30 basis points to 5.6%. Core inflation was also raised marginally to 4.4%. The MPC expects inflation to average 5.8% over the next three quarters.
MACRO & FED
Slashdot.org
07 Oct 2026 · 19:00
Fed Minutes Show Hawkish Unity Behind September Rate Hike - Bloomberg.com
Fed Minutes Show Hawkish Unity Behind September Rate HikeBloomberg.com The Fed was unanimous about raising rates in September. Economic signals have since changed.Yahoo Finance Fed Telegraphs Another Interest Rate Hike This Year | Economy …
Fed Minutes Show Hawkish Unity Behind September Rate HikeBloomberg.com The Fed was unanimous about raising rates in September. Economic signals have since changed.Yahoo Finance Fed Telegraphs Another Interest Rate Hike This Year | Economy | U.S. NewsU.S. News… The Fine Print: The following comments are owned by whoever posted them. We are not responsible for them in any way.
MACRO & FED
Biztoc.com
07 Oct 2026 · 19:00
Why Is the Job Market So Bad? Why Americans Are Struggling to Find Work
For millions of Americans, the economy and labor market appear to be sending conflicting signals. While the unemployment rate is relatively low by historical standards, many job seekers are reporting that they have spent …
For millions of Americans, the economy and labor market appear to be sending conflicting signals.
While the unemployment rate is relatively low by historical standards, many job seekers are reporting that they have spent months applying for positions with lit… For millions of Americans, the economy and labor market appear to be sending conflicting signals.While the unemployment rate is relatively low by historical standards, many job seekers are reporting …
MACRO & FED
Biztoc.com
07 Oct 2026 · 19:00
Trump Wants the Fed to Rescue Him Ahead of the Midterms. That’s Probably Not Going to Happen
President Donald Trump has made no secret of his desire to exert control over the Federal Reserve’s economic policy. His primary demand? Cut interest rates. That, Trump seems to reason, will give the economy …
President Donald Trump has made no secret of his desire to exert control over the Federal Reserve’s economic policy. His primary demand? Cut interest rates.
That, Trump seems to reason, will give the economy a short-term jolt, even if it causes longer-term pa… President Donald Trump has made no secret of his desire to exert control over the Federal Reserves economic policy. His primary demand? Cut interest rates.That, Trump seems to reason, will give the e…
MACRO & FED
Biztoc.com
07 Oct 2026 · 19:00
US Fed minutes show bank is unlikely to hike rates in October
The market odds of a rate increase at the US Federal Reserve’s October meeting sank Wednesday after the central bank published minutes of its September meeting, though Fed watchers priced in a December hike. …
The market odds of a rate increase at the US Federal Reserve’s October meeting sank Wednesday after the central bank published minutes of its September meeting, though Fed watchers priced in a December hike.
While the Fed’s policymakers voted unanimously to r… The market odds of a rate increase at the US Federal Reserves October meeting sank Wednesday after the central bank published minutes of its September meeting, though Fed watchers priced in a Decembe…
MACRO & FED
Biztoc.com
07 Oct 2026 · 19:00
Spiralling chaos from the bond market will shake the world economy
David MacNicol is president and portfolio manager at MacNicol & Associates Asset Management. The recent synchronized rise in global yields is not simply a U.S. fiscal or monetary story. Investors are reassessing global debt …
David MacNicol is president and portfolio manager at MacNicol & Associates Asset Management.
The recent synchronized rise in global yields is not simply a U.S. fiscal or monetary story.
Investors are reassessing global debt levels, persistent inflation and a … David MacNicol is president and portfolio manager at MacNicol & Associates Asset Management.The recent synchronized rise in global yields is not simply a U.S. fiscal or monetary story.Investors a…
MACRO & FED
pymnts.com
07 Oct 2026 · 19:00
Citi Wealth Sees Long Runway for AI Spending Despite Bubble Warnings
The artificial intelligence buildout is still in its early-to-middle stages, Citi Wealth said in a report released Wednesday (Oct. 7). By completing this form, you agree to receive marketing communications from PYMNTS and to …
The artificial intelligence buildout is still in its early-to-middle stages, Citi Wealth said in a report released Wednesday (Oct. 7).
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The AI investment cycle is facing greater scrutiny due to higher interest rates, increasingly capable open-weight models, regulatory pressure and rising infrastructure costs, the bank said in the report.
At the same time, despite the “growing noise” around the AI buildout, other signals remain strong, including semiconductor demand that continues to outpace near-term supply, U.S. core capital goods orders that rose in the first half, and AI-related exports that continue to drive growth in countries like South Korea and Taiwan, per the report.
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“We continue to favor diversified semiconductor exposure as a core holding and a key pillar of our U.S. large cap overweight,” Citi Wealth said in the report. “We also favor hyperscalers, which enter the next phase from a position of strength. Their vertical integration across large language models (LLMs), compute infrastructure (data centers) and chips strengthen their competitive advantage.”
On the same day this publication arrived, Reuters reported that analysts are watching Samsung Electronics’ upcoming earnings as they look for data on whether memory chip margins have peaked and whether the AI spending boom remains durable.
Samsung is set to release its preliminary third quarter results Thursday (Oct. 8), followed by more detailed data for the quarter in late October, according to the report.
While the shortage of chips is expected to continue into 2027 or beyond, the pace of price increases on the products slowed in the third quarter, leading to analysts’ concerns about the memory chip margins and AI spending that have driven profits for Samsung and other chipmakers, the Reuters report said.
The Bank for International Settlements released a report in July that warned that excessive AI investment could make the technology’s boom unsustainable. The BIS pointed to past booms that “ended in sharp corrections” that had far-reaching economic implications.
NOTUS said in July that it obtained a copy of a draft report by the U.S. Department of the Treasury that warned of extensive risks to the economy if the AI market repeats what happened when the dotcom bubble burst 25 years ago.
MACRO & FED
pymnts.com
07 Oct 2026 · 18:45
Fed’s Bowman Decries ‘Antiquated’ Analysis Blocking Rural Bank Mergers
There is more work to be done in modernizing the bank regulatory and supervision framework, Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman said Tuesday (Oct. 6). By completing this form, you agree …
There is more work to be done in modernizing the bank regulatory and supervision framework, Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman said Tuesday (Oct. 6).
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Complete the form to unlock this article and enjoy unlimited free access to all PYMNTS content — no additional logins required.
In a speech delivered at the Community Banking Research Conference in St. Louis, Missouri, Bowman said that over the past two years the Fed has acted to support community banks by refocusing its supervision on risks that could impact a firm’s financial condition, by working with banking agencies to update the community bank leverage ratio and by eliminating the Novel Activities Supervision Program to support community bank innovation.
One area in which work remains to be done is mergers and acquisitions. The Federal Reserve’s competitive analysis in bank mergers disproportionately affects rural banks in small and underserved markets and understates the competition these banks face, Bowman said.
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“This analysis is antiquated and harmful to community banks that may face greater difficulties in merging, even when doing so may actually create a stronger and more competitive banking environment,” Bowman said.
Bowman also highlighted de novo formation and said that the Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council (FFIEC) issued a statement in June reaffirming its support for de novo bank formation.
“While this was an important show of broad-based support for de novos, federal and state banking agencies can and should do more to promote new bank formation — including clarifying approval standards (like capital requirements), adhering to specific and reasonable processing timelines, and issuing conditional approvals where appropriate,” Bowman said.
A third area in which work remains is in rationalizing and streamlining the call report, Bowman said, referring to the Consolidated Reports of Condition and Income.
“The FFIEC issued a request for information on call report streamlining in December 2025, seeking public comment about excessive burden on banks that file the call report and requesting stakeholders to identify options for streamlining,” Bowman said.
PYMNTS reported in June 2025, when Bowman was sworn in as vice chair for supervision at the Federal Reserve, that past speeches and papers showed that Bowman might drive a rollback of several regulations, with a guiding principle that seeks to relax some mandates on smaller financial institutions, and address risks in the system.