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Skepticalscience.com
09 Oct 2026 · 00:45
Skeptical Science New Research for Week #41 2026
Skeptical Science New Research for Week #41 2026 Posted on 8 October 2026 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack Open access notables Committed Antarctic Ice Sheet mass loss by the end of the twenty-first century, …
Skeptical Science New Research for Week #41 2026
Posted on 8 October 2026 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack
Open access notables
Committed Antarctic Ice Sheet mass loss by the end of the twenty-first century, Lin et al., Nature Geoscience
The Antarctic Ice Sheet is the largest source of uncertainty in sea-level rise projections, with uncertainties propagating through emissions scenarios, atmosphere–ocean general circulation models, ice-sheet dynamics and sea-level physics. In ice-sheet model intercomparison exercises, these uncertainties—typically attributed to intermodel differences—stem from modelling choices that may bias ensembles towards commonly adopted approaches regardless of observational consistency. Here we quantify how each individual physical assumption cascades into projection uncertainty using a machine-learning emulation framework, which also enables Bayesian calibration against satellite observations to reduce projection bias. Our results suggest it is very likely (≥0.92 probability) that the Antarctic Ice Sheet is committed to twenty-first-century mass loss, even under aggressive emissions-reduction scenarios. Higher emissions drive greater Antarctic mass loss by 2100 (≥0.89 probability), directly elevating near-term coastal risks. Under very high-emissions scenarios, we identify cascading mechanisms that could produce up to 25.4 cm of sea-level rise by 2100 (95th percentile; median = 15.7 cm) while remaining consistent with satellite observations. Effective management of these risks to densely populated coastal communities requires rapid emissions reductions and improved constraints on climate model selection, sliding laws and ice-shelf melt parameterizations.
Hysteresis and irreversibility in permafrost physical response to increase and decrease of CO 2 emissions, Watanabe et al., Earth System Dynamic
Boreal permafrost over the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes, defined as areas where the ground temperature is below 0 °C for two or more years, stores more than twice as much carbon as the atmosphere. Therefore, thawing of the permafrost, a tipping element, due to global warming may lead to additional carbon emissions and accelerate the warming. To investigate the permafrost response to increase and decrease of CO2 emissions, we conducted a series of numerical experiments using an emission-driven Earth System Model, MIROC-ES2L, and adopting idealized overshooting scenarios in which a prescribed CO2 emission of 10 PgC yr−1 is given until the global warming level reaches different values between 2 and 8 °C followed by the negative emission until the cumulative emission becomes zero. We found that the response of permafrost area to surface warming and cooling is reversible but has hysteresis for all the emission scenarios. Furthermore, the permafrost property such as the ratio of frozen to liquid water was shown to have irreversibility in the deep soil layer; part of the frozen area in the initial condition was replaced by a mixed water-ice area in the final state despite ground temperature returning almost to the initial condition. Sensitivity experiments reveal that the hysteresis and irreversibility are attributed to the delay of the soil freezing and melting associated with the soil heat conductivity and specific heat of water phase change. This result indicates that once permafrost thaws with warming it will continue for decades after warming diminishes and the delay in the permafrost recovery is larger at global warming levels greater than 2 °C. An offline calculation shows that the additional CO2 emission during the permafrost hysteresis cycle accounts for about 0.6 %–41 % of the cumulative carbon emission released from thawed permafrost in flat10 and NEC experiments.
Trends and Extremes of Near-Surface Dry-Bulb, Wet-Bulb, and Dewpoint Temperature across Southeast Asia and Northern Australia (1980–2021), May et al., Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatolog
Trends in seasonal average dry-bulb temperature T, wet-bulb temperature TWB, and dewpoint temperature TD over the last 42 years (1980–2021) were analyzed over the Southeast (SE) Asian and tropical northern Australian region. All three variables show broad positive trends in most areas, except for relatively weak, nonsignificant trends over northern Australia. Trends in TD and TWB are as high as 0.5°C decade−1 in parts of SE Asia, with generally slightly smaller observed trends in TWB than in T. Trends over the ocean tend to be less variable and slightly weaker on average. We observe an increased occurrence of extreme events in recent years (the 2010s) compared to earlier decades. The T, TWB, and TD extremes occur substantially more frequently during El Niño years, in addition to an underlying increasing trend.
Advancing a Coordinated Strategy for Decision-Relevant Climate Data Products for the United States, Ullrich et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Climate adaptation practitioners, planners, and policymakers rely on historical reconstructions and future projections of regional to local climate for adaptation, resilience, and risk management. To serve the many needs of these users, climate data must be relevant for informing the decision-making process (“salient”), consistent with our physical understanding of the global Earth system (“credible”), backed by expert judgment (“authoritative”), and publicly available and ready for use (“accessible”). As more decision-relevant climate data products are being developed to address outstanding needs, important challenges have emerged around the selection, evaluation, use, and standardization of these data products. This article examines opportunities and challenges associated with regional climate data for the United States and describes nascent efforts to build a coordinated strategy among communities of producers and users to maximize the utility of decision-relevant datasets. A community of practice (CoP) is now emerging to benefit both end users and data producers. The CoP will enable enhanced evaluation protocols, improved uncertainty quantification, and eased data distribution and usage, informed by ongoing input on data needs and feedback on quality and usability of data from a wide range of user communities. Broad coordination among interested parties and periodic reviews of the state of the field are vital to the success of this community of practice.
They reduce, we reduce: Perception of other countries’ climate effort predicts support for climate policies, Tam et al., PLOS Climate
As public support influences policy choices, it is crucial to understand how people view climate policies. Based on the premise that individuals tend to be conditional cooperators, we derived the “They Reduce, We Reduce” hypothesis, according to which citizens’ support for climate policies in their own country is higher if they perceive a stronger climate effort by other countries. We tested this hypothesis with a survey study (N = 4,000) in China, India, Japan, and the United States. Findings show that participants who perceived that other countries were likely and willing to take action to reduce climate change, or that the major emitters in the world were currently making substantial efforts, were more supportive of implementing climate policies in their own country. We also observed interindividual variations in this effect, though the patterns differed between countries: The policy attitudes of individuals who felt personally obligated to combat climate change and those who supported their country’s unconditional efforts were less tied to such perceptions. These findings suggest that people respond to other countries’ actions, and policy attitudes should be understood in the context of global climate governance, with reciprocity playing an important role in mobilizing public support.
From this week's government/NGO section:
Economic, Consumer Cost, Pollution Impacts of Federal Energy Policy Changes In 48 U.S. States, Energy Innovation
Federal policy changes since January 2025 will harm the 48 contiguous U.S. states with higher energy prices, lost economic growth and jobs, worse air pollution and healthcare costs, and less grid reliability. Households will pay an additional $920 billion for energy between 2026-2040 – about $6,500 cumulatively per household across that period and $640 per household in 2035. Cutting policies that drive transportation sector innovation and efficiency will inflate gasoline prices 54 cents per gallon in 2035 and 93 cents per gallon in 2040, atop upward pressure from the Iran war. OBBBA and federal cuts to domestic manufacturing and innovation will cost 390,000 jobs per year on average, totaling 6.2 million job-years lost to state economies. Slowing down electrification and domestic energy manufacturing will lower GDP, spilling into other economic sectors, costing state economies $1.3 trillion in cumulative GDP losses. Worsening local air pollution will cause 37,000 additional premature deaths and raise healthcare costs by $72 billion, contributing to rising household costs alongside rising energy prices and goods inflation. All federal energy policy decisions and climate repeals will generate 9.3 billion tons of CO2e emissions, roughly 580 million tons per year.
Offshore Wind Lease Buyouts. Picking Winners and Losers Costs Taxpayers Billions, Taxpayers for Common Sense
As of September 2026, the Department of the Interior (DOI) has agreed to pay energy companies up to $3.9 billion to cancel 12 leases they previously obtained at competitive auctions, on the condition that they make equivalent investments in conventional energy projects instead. These buyouts carry significant implications for American taxpayers and consumers, and there could be more to come. Concerns with offshore wind lease buyouts include the following; Costs Taxpayers $3.9 Billion to Cancel Projects Already Underway: The agreements would return billions in taxpayer revenue already deposited into the federal Treasury to wind developers in exchange for terminating their offshore wind leases; Picks Winners and Losers: The Administration is using billions in refunds to steer investment toward specific energy sectors, manipulating the free market. These cancellations run counter to market trends and private investment decisions. Companies won these leases through competitive auctions; now the Administration is determining which projects and energy sectors qualify for taxpayer-funded refunds; Decreases Planned Domestic Energy Supply: The 12 canceled leases were expected to support projects with a combined nameplate capacity of 19.2 gigawatts (GW), enough to power 6.6 million households. Their cancellation deprives consumers of a future source of domestic energy production; Undermines Energy Security: Robust and diverse energy sources strengthen the domestic energy market. Energy companies paid billions of dollars to secure federal offshore wind leases to diversify their energy portfolios, and now the Administration is undermining their diversification efforts. Although the Administration claims the refunds support new investments, some agreements count investments companies had already made, meaning these taxpayer-funded refunds will not lead to new investment or increase future energy supply.
Climate Fraud 101. Big Oil’s Climate Deception Explained in 101 Documents (1957–2026), Megan Matthews and Kert Davies, The Center for Climate Integrity
For decades, fossil fuel industry leaders were warned that, unless action was taken, communities across the globe would suffer catastrophic harms caused by their products. What they did with that knowledge is the story of the most consequential corporate deception campaign in world history. The authors highlight decades of Big Oil’s climate lies through 101 documents showing that the industry knew and lied about its' central role in the climate crisis.
159 articles in 86 journals by 872 contributing authors
Physical science of climate change, effects
Asymmetry in carbon cycle feedbacks and transient climate response under positive and negative CO2 emissions, Chimuka & Zickfeld, Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-23-6211-2026
Background trade winds and climate sensitivity control the eastern equatorial Pacific warming pattern, Stuivenvolt-Allen & Fedorov, Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.aec5746
Global climate impact of land-surface change driven by radiative effects, Vrese et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-77834-0
Impacts of increasing CO2 on diurnal migrating tide in the equatorial lower thermosphere, McLandress & Fomichev, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2005gl025345
Impacts of Mean State Ocean Heat Transport on Climate and Its Response to CO2 Forcing, Gornitz et al., Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences 10.1111/nyas.14006
Instantaneous heating rate forcing differentiates tropical high-cloud adjustments across greenhouse gases, Chen et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.aef7462
Modulation of precession-forced Asian–African monsoon and arid climate variability by obliquity, Lei et al., npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Open Access 10.1038/s41612-026-01566-7
Temperature-Modulated Ocean CO2 Uptake in Response to CO2 Increase and Decrease, Xu & Gao, PLANT PHYSIOLOGY 10.1104/pp.112.206961
The 2022 Record-Breaking Northeastward Shift of South Asian High Since 1980: The Role of the Gulf Stream, Zhu et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70623
Why April Stands Out: Monthly Impacts of Internal Variability on Arctic Amplification, Gale et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026jd047413
“Young Get Older, But Old Get Younger”: Warming-Induced Circulation Change Explains Contrasting Pattern of Projected Pacific Deoxygenation, Taylor et al., AGU Advances Open Access 10.1029/2025av002278
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Observations of climate change, effects
Climate-change-amplified wind-related economic losses during Cyclone Harry (2026), Faranda et al., Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society Open Access 10.1002/qj.70314
Historical Trend and Future Projection of Summer Temperature Extremes in Nepal, Paudel et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70610
Increased Arctic Winter Rain-on-Snow-Induced Melt Events Detected by Spaceborne Passive Microwave Remote Sensing, Tao et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0414.1
State of the Climate in Asia 2025, Danielopol et al., Environmental Conservation 10.1017/s0376892903000109
State of Wildfires 2025–2026, Medicine, The Lancet Respiratory Medicine 10.1016/s2213-2600(26)00256-0
Trends and Extremes of Near-Surface Dry-Bulb, Wet-Bulb, and Dewpoint Temperature across Southeast Asia and Northern Australia (1980–2021), May et al., Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 10.1175/jamc-d-24-0214.1
Tropical belt expansion and its impacts on climate variability in the Mediterranean from 1980 to 2022, Darrag et al., Atmospheric chemistry and physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-26-14031-2026
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Sustained greening of the Antarctic Peninsula observed from satellites, Nature Geoscience, 10.1038/s41561-024-01564-5 46 cites.
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Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects
Advancing a Coordinated Strategy for Decision-Relevant Climate Data Products for the United States, Ullrich et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society pdf 10.1175/bams-d-24-0303.1
Annual growth rates of column-averaged CO2 inferred from Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON), Lindqvist et al., Atmospheric chemistry and physics Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-15-13023-2015
Climate Change Contribution to Seasonal Forecast Anomalies Using Constrained CMIP6 Projections, Ledoux--Xatard et al., Atmospheric Science Letters Open Access 10.1002/asl2.70061
Comparison of Gridded Precipitation Datasets Used in Climate and Drought Monitoring in the Contiguous United States, Schumacher et al., Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 10.1175/jamc-d-26-0022.1
Defining the Anthropocene using precise geological evidence, Barlow et al., Journal of Applied Ecology Open Access pdf 10.1111/1365-2664.12587
Instrumental Artefacts Can Reverse Apparent Lightning–Climate Trends, Wieser et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl124367
Synchronized Declines in Global Landsat Cloud Occurrence Probability and Area, Yang et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-26-0038.1
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Energy balance closure at FLUXNET sites revisited, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110235 58 cites.
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Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects
Climate Change Projections for Mexico in the 21st Century, Tejeda-Aguilar et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.70605
Climate warming amplifies coastal hypoxia response to extreme river discharge, HAO et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-04106-6
Near-Surface Extreme Wind Events and Their Responses to Climate Forcings in a Hierarchy of Global Climate Models, Zhang et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-26-0148.1
Strong latitudinal contrasts in global wet/dry patterns since the Last Glacial Maximum and under future warming, Zhang et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-04078-7
Temperature-Modulated Ocean CO2 Uptake in Response to CO2 Increase and Decrease, Xu & Gao, PLANT PHYSIOLOGY 10.1104/pp.112.206961
The Response of Tropical Land–Ocean Precipitation Partitioning to SST and CO2 Increase in Global Storm-Resolving Simulations, Schulz & Hohenegger, Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-26-0041.1
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Fire weakens land carbon sinks before 1.5 °C, Nature Geoscience, 10.1038/s41561-024-01554-7 30 cites.
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Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection
A Novel Precipitation-Concentration Kriging Ensemble Drought Assessment Framework (PCK-EDAF) for Spatially Consistent and Reliable Drought Projection Under CMIP6 Climate Scenarios, Fatima & Ali, International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70588
Discrepancies in Extreme Daily and Monthly Precipitation Trends Between Observations and Earth System Models, Zarei & Destouni, Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1764771
Eye-Tracking EzGCM, an Online Climate Modeling Tool, to Evaluate Three Dimensions of Usability, Brown et al., Weather Climate and Society 10.1175/wcas-d-24-0134.1
Net release of CO2 from thawing permafrost soil carbon predicted to occur earlier in this century, Ping, Soil Horizons Open Access pdf 10.2136/sh2013-54-4-gc
The Influence of Historical Sea Surface Temperature Patterns on Regional Precipitation Trends, Dai, Nature Climate Change 10.1038/nclimate1633
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Enhancing Winter Climate Simulations of the Great Lakes: Insights from a New Coupled Lake-Ice-Atmosphere (CLIAv1) Model on the Importance of Integrating 3D Hydrodynamics with a Regional Climate Model, , 10.5194/gmd-2024-146 5 cites.
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Cryosphere & climate change
A Decade of Monthly Frontal Ablation at 147 Tidewater Glaciers in Svalbard, Pyles et al., Earth system science data Open Access 10.5194/essd-18-7319-2026
Committed Antarctic Ice Sheet mass loss by the end of the twenty-first century, Lin et al., Nature Geoscience Open Access 10.1038/s41561-026-02102-1
Decoded Antarctic snow accumulation history reconciles observed and modeled trends in accumulation and large-scale warming patterns, Schneider et al., Earth System Dynamics Open Access 10.5194/esd-17-1395-2026
Four decades of glacier changes in Karzok, Ladakh regulated by climatic and non-climatic drivers (1980–2023), Prajapati et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.105275
Hysteresis and irreversibility in permafrost physical response to increase and decrease of CO 2 emissions, Watanabe et al., Earth System Dynamics Open Access pdf 10.5194/esd-17-1135-2026
Increased Arctic Winter Rain-on-Snow-Induced Melt Events Detected by Spaceborne Passive Microwave Remote Sensing, Tao et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0414.1
Modeling the 21st-century response of Greenland’s Zachariæ Isstrøm and Nioghalvfjerdsfjorden Glaciers to atmosphere?ocean forcing and friction laws, Dong et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2025.11.006
Physical mechanism of winter extreme sea ice decline events from a Pan-Arctic viewpoint, Jiang et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.109385
Reduced surface hoar in a warming world, Rudisill et al., cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-20-5585-2026
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Winter snowpack loss increases warm-season compound hot-dry extremes, Communications Earth & Environment, 10.1038/s43247-024-01734-8 15 cites.
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Sea level & climate change
Compound coastal flood exposure in global deltas: an integrated assessment of sea-level rise, subsidence, and socioeconomic dynamics, Wu et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100775
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Shaping the Coast: Accounting for the Human Wildcard in Projections of Future Change, Earth s Future, 10.1029/2024ef004504 3 cites.
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Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry
Deep waters in the Southwest Pacific do not record a release of excess respired carbon during the early deglacial CO? rise, Hayward, The Journal of Foraminiferal Research 10.2113/32.3.274
Explaining Glacial-Interglacial CO2 Changes Requires Multiple Ocean Processes, Griffiths et al., Journal of Experimental Botany Open Access pdf 10.1093/jxb/erx278
Extreme North American heatwaves in 1941 and 2021 drove widespread but contrasting impacts, Anderson & Chartrand, Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-04055-0
The Glacial-Interglacial CO2-Temperature Relationship, Ganopolski & Roche, Quaternary Science Reviews 10.1016/j.quascirev.2009.09.019
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Global hydroclimate perturbations during the Toarcian oceanic anoxic event, Earth-Science Reviews, 10.1016/j.earscirev.2024.104946 16 cites.
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Biology & climate change, related geochemistry
Aperiodic Clustered and Periodic Hexagonal Vegetation Spot Arrays Explained by Inhomogeneous Environments and Climate Trends in Arid Ecosystems, Pinto-Ramos et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl118462
Climate stress priming of juvenile Southern California giant kelp (Macrocystis pyrifera) to marine heatwaves, Smith et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1938610
Compound food failure on a deteriorated mast system drives Japan’s bear conflict crisis, Xiao et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.aej8134
Coupling of Pacific and Indian Ocean variability disrupted by 19th century volcanism, Wang et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-76705-y
Diatom–lipid–copepod nexus under threat by global change, Jónasdóttir et al., Biology Letters Open Access 10.1098/rsbl.2026.0369
Fine-root responses to warming and elevated CO2 vary among plant functional types, Griffin & Prager, Tree Physiology 10.1093/treephys/tpw133
Habitat-Forming Macroalgae Show Greater Resilience to Marine Heatwaves Than Models Predict, Yet Chronic Ocean Warming Remains Poised to Deliver Considerable Future Declines, Davis et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.1002/ece3.72604
Impact of climate change on environmental niche dynamics of resident and migratory ducks in the Eastern Himalayan wintering grounds, Mahananda et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-026-74143-w
Increasing atmospheric evaporative demand leads to reducing stability of terrestrial ecosystems to droughts, Zhu et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105743
Investigating Coastal Vegetation Dynamics and Ecosystem Impacts Under Elevated CO2 and Temperature: A Process-Based Approach, ESA, Bulletin of the Ecological Society of America 10.1890/0012-9623-94.4.310
Long-term forest-line dynamics in the French Pyrenees: an accelerating upward shift related to forest context, global warming and pastoral abandonment, Delpouve et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-22-7725-2025
New climate regime restructures the ecology of Canada’s Northern Great Lakes, Rühland et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2603271123
Ocean acidification reshapes phytoplankton phosphorus metabolism under phosphate-limited conditions, wang et al., Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-026-02113-y
Overwintering Strategies Drive Climate Change Impacts on Body Mass in Northern Mammals, Leach et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.71132
Spatial Variability and Long-Term Trends in Winter Phytoplankton of the Warming Eastern Mediterranean Sea, Yuan et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles Open Access 10.1029/2026gb009273
Spatial variation and predictors of plant species' intrinsic climate sensitivity across the conterminous United States, Qu et al., Ecography Open Access 10.1002/ecog.08894
The short-term effects of ocean acidification on the epiphytic bacterial community of Sargassum thunbergii via high-throughput sequencing, Ji et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107531
Vegetation Phenology Shifts Under Climate Change: Cross-Season Mechanisms and Consequences for Ecosystem Productivity, Liu et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.71112
Warmer temperature accelerates senescence by modifying the aging-dependent changes in the mosquito transcriptome, altering immunity, metabolism, and DNA repair, Martin et al., Immunity & Ageing Open Access 10.1186/s12979-025-00551-7
Wet-to-Dry Cascades May Increasingly Drive Wildfire Activity in Non-Forested Ecosystems, and Further Amplify the Risk of Urban Interface Fire Disasters, in a Warming Climate, Swain & Stephens, Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.70681
[Review] Climate change and animal infectious diseases: a systematic review of emerging evidence, Houe et al., Frontiers in Veterinary Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fvets.2019.00301
“Wildlife and Climate” Scientific Consensus on the Roles of Wild Animals in the Global Carbon Cycle and Natural Climate Solutions, Roberts et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.71115
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Climate change driven effects on transport, fate and biogeochemistry of trace element contaminants in coastal marine ecosystems, Communications Earth & Environment, 10.1038/s43247-024-01679-y 118 cites.
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GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry
A high-resolution urban CO2 transport model with anthropogenic and biogenic fluxes, Wu et al., Elementa Science of the Anthropocene Open Access 10.1525/elementa.138
ABCFlux v2: Arctic–boreal CO2 and CH4 monthly flux observations and ancillary information across terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, Virkkala et al., Repository for Publications and Research Data (ETH Zurich) Open Access pmh:oai:www.research-collection.ethz.ch:20.500.11850/806633
Amazon River Plume Control on Carbonate Chemistry in the Western Tropical Atlantic, Batista et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles Open Access 10.1029/2026gb009389
Climate Change Induced Seasonal Amplification of the Indian Ocean CO2 Sink, ESA, Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment Open Access pdf 10.1890/1540-9295-11.6.284
CO2 and CH4 fluxes from standing dead trees in a northern conifer forest, Hettwer, DigitalCommons (California Polytechnic State University) pmh:oai:digitalcommons.library.umaine.edu:etd-5303
Drought-induced peatland carbon loss exacerbated by elevated CO2 and warming, Quan et al., Repository for Publications and Research Data (ETH Zurich) Open Access pmh:oai:www.research-collection.ethz.ch:20.500.11850/785250
Ecosystem respiration during snowmelt and soil thaw leads to a rare annual CO2 net loss in a boreal fen, Särkelä et al., Työväentutkimus Vuosikirja Open Access pmh:oai:helda.helsinki.fi:10138/638997
Future methane measurement campaigns require basin-specific sampling strategies, Daniels & Hammerling, Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-04089-4
High-Resolution Modeling to Quantify CO2 Emissions From an Industrial Point Source, Zhao et al., Atmospheric chemistry and physics Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-15-12623-2015
Improved estimation of net ecosystem CO2 exchange over North America using LSTM-based flux upscaling (2001–2021), Huang & Wei, Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) Open Access 10.5281/zenodo.20482273
Interhemispheric Asymmetry in Air-Sea CO2 flux Trends Across Eastern Boundary Current Systems Under a High Warming Scenario, Banerjee & Kumar, Global Biogeochemical Cycles 10.1029/2025gb008860
Lake eutrophication increases unprotected organic carbon pools in sediments, Gong et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-04103-9
Modeling Carbon Emissions Driven by Land-Use Change: Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis of Dynamic Global Vegetation Models, Dong et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026gb009219
N2O Emissions From the Eastern Tropical Indian Ocean, Martinez-Rey et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-12-4133-2015
Net release of CO2 from thawing permafrost soil carbon predicted to occur earlier in this century, Ping, Soil Horizons Open Access pdf 10.2136/sh2013-54-4-gc
Northern typical forested swamp soil CO? efflux dynamics, Geng et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access 10.3389/ffgc.2026.1925894
Overlooked contribution of organic alkalinity in Arctic Ocean margins biases ocean acidification estimates, Song et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-04072-z
Previously Unrecognized Land-Use Control on Deep Soil CO2 Sink, Sultan, New Phytologist Open Access pdf 10.1111/j.1469-8137.2009.02974.x
Saline Permafrost and Cryopegs as Potentially Important Sources of CO2—Assessing Organic Carbon Mineralization Potentials on the Alaskan Coastal Plain, Seemann et al., Publication Database GFZ (GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences) Open Access pdf pmh:oai:gfzpublic.gfz.de:item_5039705
Substantially underestimated winter CO2 sources of the Southern Ocean, Horton et al., Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences 10.1111/nyas.12586
Temperature-Modulated Ocean CO2 Uptake in Response to CO2 Increase and Decrease, Xu & Gao, PLANT PHYSIOLOGY 10.1104/pp.112.206961
The Detectability of Extreme CO2 Flux Events Using Atmospheric Observations, He et al., Remote Sensing Open Access pdf 10.3390/rs10060839
The role of the tropical carbon balance in determining the large atmospheric CO2 growth rate in 2023, Sage et al., Annals of Botany Open Access pdf 10.1093/aob/mcad160
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Arctic soil carbon trajectories shaped by plant–microbe interactions, Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-024-02147-3 32 cites.
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CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering
A Review of Experimental Approaches to CO2 Injectivity in Geological Storage: Methods, Controlling Factors, and Challenges, Zhou et al., Arabian Journal for Science and Engineering 10.1007/s13369-025-10982-5
A systematic review of carbon sink pathways and deployment strategies, Ma et al., The Science of The Total Environment 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.180833
Advances in CO2 Capture Materials: From Strategies to CO2-Based Fertilizers for a Sustainable Future, Novella, Frontiers in Thermal Engineering Open Access pdf 10.3389/fther.2023.1301616
Advances in CO2 Capture Materials: From Strategies to CO2-Based Fertilizers for a Sustainable Future, Novella, Frontiers in Thermal Engineering Open Access pdf 10.3389/fther.2023.1301616
Characterization and Performance Evaluation of Biochar-Modified Wellbore Cement Under Geological CO2 Storage Conditions, Gan et al., Geoenergy Science and Engineering 10.1016/j.geoen.2024.213510
Comprehensive Evaluation of Fault Sealing for CO2 Geological Storage in Low-Permeability Reservoirs, Amer et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-025-03032-5
Ideas and perspectives: Max MACS – constraining the potential global scale of Marine Anoxic Carbon Storage for CO2 removal, Raven et al., Repository for Publications and Research Data (ETH Zurich) Open Access pmh:oai:www.research-collection.ethz.ch:20.500.11850/801836
Measuring large-scale mCDR using a novel Atmospheric CO? Perimeter Flux (ACPF) method, Fiekowsky et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1941538
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: The Impact of Drought on Terrestrial Carbon in the West African Sahel: Implications for Natural Climate Solutions, Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences, 10.1029/2024jg008143 4 cites.
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Decarbonization
Carbon catalysts for CO2 conversion: From carbon emissions to zero-carbon solutions, Rusdan et al., Nanomaterials Open Access pdf 10.3390/nano12213877
Gaps in mind: Political and spatial cleavages in local onshore wind attitudes in Germany, Radtke, Energy Policy Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115475
Physics-informed large models for wind and solar forecasting: A carbon-aware framework for decarbonized power systems, Sulaima et al., Energy Sustainable Development/Energy for sustainable development Open Access 10.1016/j.esd.2026.102146
Turning Wind Into Value: Hydrogen Storage and Trade as Variation Management Strategies for Offshore Wind Integration, Marnate & Grönkvist, Wind Energy Open Access 10.1002/we.70155
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Solar cells combined with geothermal or wind power systems reduces climate and environmental impact, Communications Earth & Environment, 10.1038/s43247-024-01739-3 22 cites.
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Geoengineering climate
Reduced Longwave Absorption of Magnesium Sulfate Aerosol as an Alternative to Sulfuric Acid for Stratospheric Aerosol Injection, Odelskii et al., Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) Open Access 10.5281/zenodo.20446772
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement in Deep Water Formation Regions Under Low and High Emission Pathways, Earth s Future, 10.1029/2023ef004213 12 cites.
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Aerosols
Anthropogenic aerosol reduction contributes to faster flash drought onset in a changing climate, Wei, Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) Open Access 10.5281/zenodo.22113395
Climate change communications & cognition
Climate anxiety is associated with increasing distress and diminishing returns in pro-environmental behaviours: A cross-sectional study of Australian youth, Lykins et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.jenvp.2026.103234
They reduce, we reduce: Perception of other countries’ climate effort predicts support for climate policies, Tam et al., PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000755
[Comment] Reframing the climate anxiety focus ahead of COP30: the imperative of addressing the policy-action gap, Ip et al., The Lancet Planetary Health Open Access 10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101397
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Truth and democracy in an era of misinformation, Science, 10.1126/science.ads5695 31 cites.
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Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change
Circularity measures enhance resilience of net zero pathways for agriculture, Henn et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-04052-3
Climate-driven agricultural migration improves livelihoods but risks nationalizing deforestation and climate vulnerability: evidence from Kafinda game management area in Zambia, Chama et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.crm.2026.100889
Cover Crops as Nature-Based Climate Solutions in the Midwestern US: Potential Benefits, Knowledge Gaps, and Opportunities for Transdisciplinary Work, Barnes et al., Earth s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2024ef005691
Diffusive CH4 Emissions From Agricultural Ditches Overshadow CH4 Sinks by Upland Fields, Wu et al., Aberdeen University Research Archive (Aberdeen University) pmh:oai:aura.abdn.ac.uk:2164/26702
Potential for Expanding Sorghum Production in Europe in the Face of Climate Change, Davoudkhani et al., Earth s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2025ef007503
The effects of peat thickness and water table depth on CO2 and N2O emissions from agricultural peatlands – a process-based modelling approach, Kajasilta et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-23-3567-2026
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Climate change mitigation policies in agriculture: An overview of sociopolitical barriers, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change, 10.1002/wcc.916 19 cites.
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Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change
A Multimodel Perspective of Droughts in Future Climate and Implications for Irrigation in Malawi, Likoya et al., Journal of Hydrometeorology Open Access 10.1175/jhm-d-25-0060.1
A potential overestimation of CO2 physiological effects on evapotranspiration, Bonfils et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-17-0005.1
Comparison of Gridded Precipitation Datasets Used in Climate and Drought Monitoring in the Contiguous United States, Schumacher et al., Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 10.1175/jamc-d-26-0022.1
[Feature] Groundwater depletion in a drying world, McQuillan, The Lancet Planetary Health Open Access 10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101372
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: The contribution of Arabian Sea warming to decreasing summer precipitation in the northern Greater Mekong Subregion, Atmospheric Research, 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107714 8 cites.
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Climate change economics
Climate-change-amplified wind-related economic losses during Cyclone Harry (2026), Faranda et al., Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society Open Access 10.1002/qj.70314
Correcting for spatial and temporal dependence in estimating the economic effect of extreme heat, Wyner & Brill, Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.aeg1967
On the Inherent Ambiguity of Extreme Event Costs Attributed to Climate Change, Match et al., AGU Advances Open Access 10.1029/2026av002546
The impact of international clean energy finance and public policies on the low-carbon energy transition: Evidence from Egypt and Brazil, De?irmenci & Ünsal, Energy Policy Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115647
Why Japan’s sovereign climate finance took a transition-bond form: bureaucratic mediation in an eco-developmental state, Kobayashi & Lin, Figshare Open Access 10.6084/m9.figshare.33321252
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: A multi-model assessment of inequality and climate change, Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-024-02151-7 71 cites.
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Climate change mitigation public policy research
Challenges in the decarbonization of the UK electrical power system by 2030: A techno-economic analysis of current and alternative policies, Or et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115633
Geopolitical fragmentation and energy transition inequalities: Climate policy uncertainty, sanctions, and the oil and gas sector, Nguyen et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.115048
Hydrogen in the European power sector – A case study on the impacts of regulatory frameworks for green hydrogen, Asimakopoulou, Yearbook of International Environmental Law Open Access 10.1093/yiel/yvad035
Ownership structures shape climate-policy effectiveness in electricity generation, Grant et al., Energy Policy Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115644
Repurposing the past, powering the future - socio-economic impacts of hybrid pumped hydro storage in Greece and Poland's coal regions, Kruczek et al., Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104386
The unequal flight: Policy design and public support for carbon taxation of air travel, Pizzo et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.erss.2026.104994
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Scenario analysis of supply- and demand-side solutions for circular economy and climate change mitigation in the global building sector, Journal of Industrial Ecology, 10.1111/jiec.13557 43 cites.
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Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research
A framework to quantify managed retreat outcomes for households and communities, Lauer et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2026.100890
Accelerating climate change adaptation in cities: a global analysis of urban strategies, drivers, and co-benefits, Liu et al., Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2025.2598520
Assessing power system vulnerability to climate-related stressors and shocks: The case of Indonesia, Aji et al., Energy Sustainable Development/Energy for sustainable development Open Access 10.1016/j.esd.2026.102147
Climate change and the weather-energy Nexus in US energy demand, Akad?r? et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-026-74518-z
Climate Change Increases Water Scarcity Risks and Adaptation Needs in China, Zhang et al., Earth s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2025ef007712
Climate change, gendered identities, and adaptation strategies in rural Tanzanian households, Mbunda, Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2025.2603542
Editorial: Receiving communities and climate destinations, Tanner & Wilsterman, BioScience Open Access pdf 10.1093/biosci/biaf065
FRAME-PS: a typology-specific method for assessing climate resilience in urban public spaces, Ronael & Oruç, Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.103173
Greening schools for climate-resilient, inclusive and liveable cities, Ruíz-Mallén et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-025-02519-3
Innovation for Climate Change Adaptation: A Meta-Analysis, Woime & Dilebo, Climate Resilience and Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1002/cli2.70066
Mainstreaming Equitable Climate Action through Growth Management Planning in Washington State, United States, Chang et al., Weather Climate and Society 10.1175/wcas-d-24-0158.1
Mapping resilience pathway of smallholder farming community to cyclone-led climate disasters in coastal West Bengal, India, Panja et al., Global Environmental Change 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103108
When adaptation is not a policy domain: Institutional embedding of climate change adaptation in Thailand’s human settlements governance, Schipper, One Earth Open Access 10.1016/j.oneear.2020.09.014
Wisdom of the Past, Power for the Future: Centering Local Traditions in Community Organizing to Codevelop Climate Adaptation Practices, Jean et al., Weather Climate and Society 10.1175/wcas-d-24-0133.1
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Landslide Hazard Is Projected to Increase Across High Mountain Asia, Earth s Future, 10.1029/2023ef004325 33 cites.
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Climate change impacts on human health
A Review of Airborne Pollen and Its Interactions With Air Pollutants, Urbanization, and Climate Change: Implications for Human Health and Monitoring Gaps, Dhawan et al., Current Allergy and Asthma Reports 10.1007/s11882-025-01241-6
Forecasted Heat and Vulnerable Populations: Understanding Limitations Associated with New Tools, Hiscox et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 10.1175/bams-d-25-0052.1
How climate change affects mosquito-borne infectious disease: The different trajectories of malaria and dengue, Cumming et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.aei0953
Integrated governance for improved climate and health outcomes in Southern African cities: a review, Matewa et al., Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2026.2655964
The impact of climate change on human health and pharmaceuticals, O'Flynn et al., Analytical Methods 10.1039/d0ay02098b
[Articles] Quantifying the health-care burden of temperature in the National Health Service in England: an economic analysis of resource use and costs, Fahr et al., The Lancet Planetary Health Open Access 10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101373
[Correspondence] Suicidality in climate change and mental health research, Bayliss et al., The Lancet Planetary Health Open Access 10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101399
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Tracking climate adaptation in hospitals: An inventory of structural measures, Climate Risk Management, 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100657 9 cites.
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Climate change impacts on human culture
Sociability Under Anthropogenic Change: From Individual Behaviour to Population-Level Consequences, Kowalczyk & Pietrzak, Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.74205
Other
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: A comparative study of strategic petroleum reserve policies of major countries in the world, Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114362 23 cites.
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Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives
[Comment] A call to action: climate leadership at the World Health Assembly, Cavendish & Nogueira, The Lancet Planetary Health Open Access 10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101389
[Feature] Groundwater depletion in a drying world, McQuillan, The Lancet Planetary Health Open Access 10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101372
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Science for transformative change: the IPCC, boundary work and the making of useable knowledge, Frontiers in Climate, 10.3389/fclim.2024.1408513 8 cites.
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Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change
Offshore Wind Lease Buyouts. Picking Winners and Losers Costs Taxpayers Billions, Taxpayers for Common Sense
As of September 2026, the Department of the Interior (DOI) has agreed to pay energy companies up to $3.9 billion to cancel 12 leases they previously obtained at competitive auctions, on the condition that they make equivalent investments in conventional energy projects instead. These buyouts carry significant implications for American taxpayers and consumers, and there could be more to come. Concerns with offshore wind lease buyouts include the following; Costs Taxpayers $3.9 Billion to Cancel Projects Already Underway: The agreements would return billions in taxpayer revenue already deposited into the federal Treasury to wind developers in exchange for terminating their offshore wind leases; Picks Winners and Losers: The Administration is using billions in refunds to steer investment toward specific energy sectors, manipulating the free market. These cancellations run counter to market trends and private investment decisions. Companies won these leases through competitive auctions; now the Administration is determining which projects and energy sectors qualify for taxpayer-funded refunds; Decreases Planned Domestic Energy Supply: The 12 canceled leases were expected to support projects with a combined nameplate capacity of 19.2 gigawatts (GW), enough to power 6.6 million households. Their cancellation deprives consumers of a future source of domestic energy production; Undermines Energy Security: Robust and diverse energy sources strengthen the domestic energy market. Energy companies paid billions of dollars to secure federal offshore wind leases to diversify their energy portfolios, and now the Administration is undermining their diversification efforts. Although the Administration claims the refunds support new investments, some agreements count investments companies had already made, meaning these taxpayer-funded refunds will not lead to new investment or increase future energy supply.
Climate Fraud 101. Big Oil’s Climate Deception Explained in 101 Documents (1957–2026), Megan Matthews and Kert Davies, The Center for Climate Integrity
For decades, fossil fuel industry leaders were warned that, unless action was taken, communities across the globe would suffer catastrophic harms caused by their products. What they did with that knowledge is the story of the most consequential corporate deception campaign in world history. The authors highlight decades of Big Oil’s climate lies through 101 documents showing that the industry knew and lied about its' central role in the climate crisis.
10th edition of the Copernicus Ocean State Report, Grégoire et al., Copernicus Publication
The authors present information on the state, variability, and ongoing changes in the marine environment of the global ocean and the European regional seas over the past decades up to close to real time. Using observation-based (remote sensing, in situ) and ocean reanalysis data, the authors provide a comprehensive 4-dimensional (latitude, longitude, depth, and time) analysis of the Blue, Green, and White Ocean. The OSR is intended to act as a reference, providing a unique ocean monitoring dashboard for the scientific community and for policy makers and others with decision making responsibilities.
Communication to the Aarhus Convention Compliance Committee regarding the European Commission’s sustainability indicators and the current data centre build-out, Emmanouilidou et al., Lighthouse Reports
The European Commission is withholding vital environmental information from the public, undermining citizens’ ability to participate meaningfully in one of the most critical environmental issues of our time: the enormous and accelerating data centre build-out. The long awaited rating scheme, now published, offers the appearance of transparency. While the Commission claims it is “the most comprehensive worldwide” transparency initiative around the environmental impact of data centres, it fails to provide the information that communities are entitled to. Absent are the real figures that the Commission holds on how much strain each data centre imposes on the electrical grid, how much water it uses and how much waste heat it emits. In their place are labels corresponding to “efficiency ratios” that conceal more than they reveal. This leaves the industry able to engage in a phoney war against the ratings scheme, which contains most of the carve outs and evasions they have lobbied for, while depriving the public of its right to know. The authors are challenging the Commission with a communication to the Aarhus Convention Compliance Committee, the body that reviews whether officials are fulfilling their legal obligations regarding environmental democracy.
Global Financing for Coal Flatlines as Banks Move in Opposite Directions, Urgewald et al., Urgewald et al
The authors use a dataset to track loans and underwriting from 744 commercial banks to companies operating across the thermal coal value chain. Between 2022 and 2025, these banks channeled $467 billion to the coal industry. Financial flows to the sector are, however, highly concentrated: Chinese banks account for 62% ($289 billion), US banks for 14% ($67 billion) and Japanese banks for 6% ($28 billion) of total bank support to the coal industry. The four years covered in the dataset directly follow COP 26 in Glasgow, where governments agreed to accelerate the phase-down of coal, and financial institutions made high-profile net-zero commitments. The authors show that global bank financing for coal has remained broadly flat since Glasgow, averaging around $117 billion per year, but this aggregate figure masks a growing rift within the banking industry. While total coal financing of EU banks declined, financial flows from UK banks to the coal industry grew by 17% since the Glasgow COP. This increase was, however, mainly driven by Barclays and to a lesser degree by HSBC.
The Southeast Asia Climate Outlook: 2026 Survey Report, Seah et al., Climate Change in Southeast Asia Programme at ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute
The report is the first comprehensive overview of climate change perspectives specific to the Southeast Asian region. Conducted yearly since 2020, the surveys aim to provide a general sense of the prevailing views of Southeast Asian citizens towards climate change issues. The reports contain the results and analysis of views towards questions such as climate adaptation and mitigation, climate change impacts, low-carbon transitions and climate policy, among other topics. The 2026 survey gathered the views of 3,706 respondents from eleven ASEAN member states.
Climate on the Floor: India’s Parliamentary Discourse on Environment since the Paris Agreement, Hajira Puthige, Centre for Financial Accountability
The author examines the evolution of India’s legislative engagement with the climate crisis during the critical decade following the adoption of the Paris Agreement in December 2015. The analysis addresses whether parliamentary scrutiny is keeping pace with the country’s growing climate vulnerabilities and if current parliamentary discussions reflect the level of ambition that the climate crisis demands. The report covers the period from December 2015 to December 2025, focusing on a dataset of 8,702 parliamentary questions raised in both the Lok Sabha and the Rajya Sabha. The analysis is organized into eight key thematic areas: Clean Energy and Decarbonisation; Extreme Weather and Natural Disasters; Forests and Land Use; Climate Change and Global Impacts; Environment; Mitigation, Adaptation and Carbon Management; Climate Finance and Markets; and Global Climate Governance.
Sound Check: Climate Risk and Resilience in Canada's Live Music Sector, Lansley et al., The Canadian Live Music Association
Climate disruption now poses a material economic risk to Canada’s live music sector. Live music contributes C$10.92 billion to Canada’s GDP, supports more than 101,000 FTE jobs, and attracts nearly 20 million visitors annually. Without stronger preparedness, coordination, and financial support, extreme weather could place an estimated C$1.2 billion to C$3.0 billion of Canadian music-event and festival economic value at risk between now and 2040, with a central estimate of approximately C$1.8 billion. Drawing on national disruption data, climate projections, the Canadian Live Music Association’s Climate Contingency survey, interviews, and focus groups, the authors found that climate risk is now a structural issue for live music in Canada. The sector is adapting, but not at the scale or pace required to protect its economic, cultural, tourism, employment, and community value.
Interim heat mortality monitoring report, England in May and June 2026, United Kingdom Health Security Agency, Government of the United Kingdom
During the May and June 2026 heat events there were an estimated total of 2,877 heat-associated deaths, an estimated 753 heat-associated deaths occurred during the May heat episode, an estimated 2,124 heat-associated deaths occurred during the June heat episode, and the mortality burden is already close to the highest annual totals previously recorded by the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA). During summer 2026, England experienced 2 notable heat events, one in May and the other in June, both of which were exceptional for different reasons. The May heat event occurred unusually early in the season, with record-breaking temperatures following a period of unseasonably cool weather. The June event was characterized by its' intensity and formed part of a broader period of sustained hot weather across Europe. Given the public health significance of these events, and the considerable interest from policymakers, partners and the public, UKHSA has produced this interim report to provide an early assessment of heat-associated mortality. Such early assessments will only be undertaken following extraordinary periods of heat and would not normally be produced for routine heat events.
Innovation on Hold: One Year Since DOE’s Mass Award Terminations, Boyd et al., US. Department of Energy Alumni and Network and Lawyers for Good Government
On October 1, 2025, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) took an unprecedented step by terminating 321 awards worth over $8 billion in clean energy grant funding. DOE has since conceded that these awards were canceled "based solely" on the award recipient state’s political identity (targeting "blue states"). When combined with earlier rounds of cuts in clean energy demonstration projects, over $12.5 billion in Congressionally appropriated energy research, development, and deployment funding was terminated last year. The authors track the lasting impacts to the Department’s grant mechanisms and awards management processes. This latest analysis of federal spending data, court filings, and direct awardee feedback shows that despite DOE’s statements that project portfolio reviews are complete, the majority of affected projects—whether terminated, "retained," or "ghosted"—remain functionally frozen.
Missouri's State Energy Plan, Missouri Department of Natural Resources
At the core of this State Energy Plan are four primary goals: Energy independence, nuclear enablement, grid reliability and economic growth (Figure 1). These goals establish a consistent framework to assess current system conditions, evaluate how different resource and investment decisions perform and identify priorities for consideration. No single course of action or set of investments optimizes all objectives at once. Rather, a portfolio of actions is needed to balance affordability, reliability, economic growth and community prosperity under a range of conditions. This portfolio, including new policies and legislation, will drive toward these goals and a brighter future for Missouri.
Thriving Economy Project, Budzinski et al., Sustainable Energy and Environment Coalition
The report is a policy blueprint designed to modernize the economy, charting a path towards growth and prosperity for all Americans. The menu of policy options will strengthen America’s economic competitiveness, ensure a stable and resilient food supply, create good jobs, preserve and strengthen the natural systems that underpin the economy, and deliver affordable, reliable energy to American families and businesses. Rather than repeatedly rebuilding after disaster strikes, the authors believe public policy should reduce risk before it materializes, reward long-term investment, align fragmented programs around shared outcomes, and equip state, local, and Tribal partners with the tools and certainty they need to act. Critical to achieving these goals is the use of forward-looking climate data so the government can ensure that new homes, bridges, and energy systems are built for the climate that people will actually face, rather than one that no longer exists. Upfront investments lead to systems that can not only withstand the climate of the future, but thrive in it.
Flood Insurance: Congressional Action Could Help Increase Coverage for At-Risk Properties, Government Accountability Office
The authors examined (1) the extent to which consumers purchase flood insurance, (2) the effectiveness of the mandatory purchase requirement, (3) factors affecting consumers’ decisions to purchase flood insurance, and (4) potential actions to increase consumers’ purchase of flood insurance. The authors identified four actions that could help increase NFIP and private flood insurance coverage. Each would require statutory authority from Congress; incorporate all sources of flood risk into purchase requirement determinations which could help ensure that more at-risk properties have coverage; make property-level flood risk information publicly available to potentially increase awareness of flood risk; require lenders to provide flood insurance quotes for federally backed mortgages to better signal the need for coverage; and increase National Flood Insurance Program coverage limits to allow property owners to obtain coverage that is better aligned with potential flood losses.
Southern California Fires Incident Analysis Report, Kerber et al., UL Research Institutes' Fire Safety Research Institute
The January 2025 fires in Southern California, including the Palisades and Eaton Fires, occurred under extreme wildfire conditions characterized by powerful Santa Ana winds, critically dry vegetation, and rapid fire spread originating in vegetation and extending into the built environment. These fires became among the most deadly, destructive, and costly wildfire disasters in California history, testing communities, emergency responders, infrastructure systems, and government agencies at every level. The findings demonstrate that outcomes were shaped by the interaction of multiple interlinked systems rather than any single factor or failure. California and local jurisdictions had established numerous prevention, preparedness, and response programs prior to the fires, including defensible space inspection programs, fuels reduction efforts, community preparedness initiatives, evacuation systems, mutual aid agreements, and extensive fire suppression resources. The analysis concludes that future wildfire resilience requires coordinated improvements across landscapes, communities, infrastructure systems, emergency management organizations, and response operations. Priority recommendations include strengthening community-scale risk reduction, enhancing preparedness for large, wind-driven community conflagrations; improving situational awareness and operational intelligence; expanding wildfire-resistant construction and community preparedness programs; strengthening evacuation and interoperability systems; improving infrastructure resilience; and establishing standardized, post-suppression procedures.
Economic, Consumer Cost, Pollution Impacts of Federal Energy Policy Changes In 48 U.S. States, Energy Innovation
Federal policy changes since January 2025 will harm the 48 contiguous U.S. states with higher energy prices, lost economic growth and jobs, worse air pollution and healthcare costs, and less grid reliability. Households will pay an additional $920 billion for energy between 2026-2040 – about $6,500 cumulatively per household across that period and $640 per household in 2035. Cutting policies that drive transportation sector innovation and efficiency will inflate gasoline prices 54 cents per gallon in 2035 and 93 cents per gallon in 2040, atop upward pressure from the Iran war. OBBBA and federal cuts to domestic manufacturing and innovation will cost 390,000 jobs per year on average, totaling 6.2 million job-years lost to state economies. Slowing down electrification and domestic energy manufacturing will lower GDP, spilling into other economic sectors, costing state economies $1.3 trillion in cumulative GDP losses. Worsening local air pollution will cause 37,000 additional premature deaths and raise healthcare costs by $72 billion, contributing to rising household costs alongside rising energy prices and goods inflation. All federal energy policy decisions and climate repeals will generate 9.3 billion tons of CO2e emissions, roughly 580 million tons per year.
Surging Water Costs amid the US Affordability Crisis, Food and Water Watch
Households across the United States are grappling with rising drinking water bills, stretching their ability to make ends meet. The authors compiled and analyzed water billing data for the 500 largest community water systems in 2025, which collectively served 155 million people (45% of the US). They compared typical household water bills in 2025 to those in 2015, using data from a previous investigation. From 2015 to 2025, household drinking water bills increased faster than inflation, grocery prices, and median household income. The average community water system increased household drinking water bills by 62%. Water bills increased at 1.6 times the overall inflation rate and more than 2 times the rate for groceries. Water bills increased 19% faster than the US median household income, forcing households to spend a higher portion of their stretched incomes on water. In Louisiana, Maryland, New Hampshire, and West Virginia, water bills grew about twice as fast as their corresponding statewide median household incomes. Climate change-driven droughts and other severe weather patterns continue to threaten water supplies and infrastructure globally, generating expenses that will be pushed onto ratepayers. Continued expansion of water-intensive industries like factory farming and hyperscale data centers also compound threats on local water supplies.
Bankable by design: Financing ASEAN’s energy system transformation, Alnie Demoral and Dinita Setyawati, Ember
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations' (ASEAN) energy transition financing challenge is shifting beyond utility-scale renewable energy toward making distributed renewable energy, battery storage and transmission infrastructure bankable at scale. The authors examine the factors shaping investment decisions across ASEAN, drawing on project-level evidence, techno-economic modelling and market assessments to identify the barriers that continue to constrain deployment. They found that market design, transaction costs, revenue certainty and value-capture mechanisms are now as important as access to capital in determining project bankability, and outline policy and financing interventions that can help accelerate the region’s clean energy transition.
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