Actualités financières en direct

Indian government bonds experienced a significant decline due to central bank measures aimed at draining liquidity. The benchmark 10-year bond yield rose to its highest level in three years, signaling potential rate hikes. Consumer …

Indian government bonds experienced a significant decline due to central bank measures aimed at draining liquidity. The benchmark 10-year bond yield rose to its highest level in three years, signaling potential rate hikes. Consumer inflation increased to 5.54… Indian government bonds tumbled on Monday, with the benchmark 10-year yield posting its biggest one-day rise in over six months, after the central bank unveiled aggressive measures to drain liquidity…

In June, the US unemployment rate sat at 4.2%. Real GDP grew at a 1.5% annual pace the same quarter. Together, those two numbers suggest the economy is fine, maybe cooling a little. However, …

In June, the US unemployment rate sat at 4.2%. Real GDP grew at a 1.5% annual pace the same quarter. Together, those two numbers suggest the economy is fine, maybe cooling a little. However, many people in the US economy who look financially stable on paper — employed, technically clear of a recession — are one missed paycheck away from losing their housing. I spent two years building a household-level Economic Security Index from seven federal datasets to help address this disparity. The more I dug into that gap, the more convinced I became that the problem is not that America’s statistics are wrong. Instead, we are asking an incomplete question. We track whether the economy is growing and whether people have jobs, not whether a household can absorb a rent increase or a missed paycheck. Both headline numbers can look healthy while households are not, and the federal data needed to show that already exists. What the headline numbers miss The unemployment rate only counts people who are actively looking for work. Anyone who has given up looking is not counted. The Bureau of Labor Statistics tracks a wider measure, U-6, that adds back in discouraged workers and people stuck part-time who want full-time jobs. That number was 8.1% in May 2026, nearly double the 4.2% headline rate recorded the following month. GDP has a similar built-in gap. It adds up everything the economy produced without asking who actually got paid for the production or whether that worker’s pay covered rent. GDP can post a strong quarter while most households fall behind, because income still counts as growth. Housing costs make this disparity hard to ignore. Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies counted 22.7 million renter households spending more than 30% of their income on housing in 2024, a record high and nearly half of all renters. More than a third of full-time working renters were in that group, well up from two decades ago. Those households look fine to a jobs report: employed, full-time, adding to GDP. None of the strain they are actually under shows up anywhere in a monthly employment release, because nobody has built a structure to look for it. A number can be measured correctly and still miss the point. Why this keeps happening Part of the problem is an outdated measurement system. The indicators economists instinctively reach for were built generations ago to answer decades-old questions: Is the economy growing? How many people are out of work? Those were good questions when a steady job usually meant a financially stable life, but they fit less well now. In an economy full of gig work, medical debt and rent that climbs faster than paychecks, a household can hit every headline benchmark and still be financially unstable. Working on the Economic Security Index showed me that better data metrics already exist. Federal agencies already collect data on housing cost burden, medical debt and income that swings month to month. However, these metrics rarely get folded into one number that makes it onto the evening news. A different starting question None of this calls for new surveys, just different priorities. Statistical agencies could publish a composite security measure right next to the unemployment rate, the same way U-6 already runs alongside the official unemployment rate. Journalists and policymakers could stop treating GDP growth as a stand-in for how households are actually doing, especially now that the two have been pulling apart for years. The old indicators still matter and still answer real questions. The trouble starts when they get treated as the whole picture instead of one piece of a bigger one. That is how a country ends up with an economy that looks healthy from a distance and a population that does not feel secure living inside it. Fixing it starts with admitting both can be true at the same time, even though only one tends to make the headline. [Andrew Litz edited this piece.] The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.

BMI, a Fitch Solutions company, raised its growth forecast for India to 7.5 per cent for FY27 from 6.8 per cent estimated previously, with the second quarter (July-September) projected to grow at 8.3 per …

BMI, a Fitch Solutions company, raised its growth forecast for India to 7.5 per cent for FY27 from 6.8 per cent estimated previously, with the second quarter (July-September) projected to grow at 8.3 per cent. The agency cited sustained industrial growth for the uptick, even as it cautioned against elevated oil prices, expected policy rate increases over inflationary concerns and a strengthening El Niño, while downgrading growth projections for FY28 (April 2027-March 2028) to 6.3 per cent from 6.5 per cent. “High-frequency indicators point to strong growth momentum, with our GDP tracker suggesting growth of around 8.3 per cent in Q2 FY2026/27 (July- September),” BMI said in its recent outlook for India. The report cited industrial production growth accelerating from 6.2 per cent in Q1 (April-June) to 7.7 per cent in July-August, alongside vehicle registration growth increasing from 16 per cent in Q1 to 26 per cent in Q2 (July-September). The upgrade to India’s growth forecast follows similar revisions by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and several global agencies after the economy posted better-than-expected growth of 7.8 per cent in the first quarter of the financial year (April-June). Recently, the RBI revised upwards its growth projection for FY27 to 7.1 per cent from 6.7 per cent. The World Bank also raised India's growth projection for the current financial year of 2026-27 to 7.1 per cent from 6.6 per cent estimated previously. On growth drivers, the report said planned artificial intelligence-related investment by Reliance, Adani, AWS and Microsoft, along with government efforts to expand power capacity for data centres under the 2025 SHANTI Act, would likely provide a durable boost to GDP, given the longer-term nature of these infrastructure investment commitments. However, BMI said higher-for-longer energy prices would weigh on household consumption and raise the import bill owing to the persistent West Asian conflict. The agency raised its inflation forecast to 5.6 per cent from 5.3 per cent in FY27 and to 6.5 per cent from 6.2 per cent in FY28. It expects the RBI to raise the repo rate by another 75 basis points to 6.25 per cent, even after last week’s 25-basis-point increase. BMI has increased its assumed average Brent crude oil price forecasts from $83 per barrel to $93 per barrel in 2026 and from $71 per barrel to $81 per barrel in 2027. Moreover, the report forecasts the consumption boost from the GST reforms and front-loading of exports to the US to fade. “Though a weaker rupee could provide some support for exports, this is unlikely to offset the impact of elevated energy prices given price inelastic energy imports,” it said. Along with elevated crude prices, a strengthening El Niño, already responsible for a rain-deficient monsoon in large parts of the country, is likely to add to inflationary pressure while hampering agricultural and rural incomes, according to the report. While the Indian government has implemented fuel-tax relief and targeted support measures after energy price shocks, further expansion is deemed unlikely due to increasing revenue losses and limited fiscal room, the report said.

Live Events as a Reliable and Trusted News Source Addas a Reliable and Trusted News Source Add Now! (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel The …

Live Events as a Reliable and Trusted News Source Addas a Reliable and Trusted News Source Add Now! (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel The S&P 500 and Nasdaq hovered near the flatline on Monday as weakness in technology stocks offset gains in energy and communication services. Investors remained cautious as oil prices reached two-week highs ahead of major bank earnings and inflation data that could influence the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate outlook, Reuters reported.The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 107.03 points, or 0.21%, to 51,761.98. The S&P 500 gained 6.14 points, or 0.08%, to 7,817.68, while the Nasdaq Composite slipped 10.23 points, or 0.04%, to 27,355.94.Brent crude traded above $106 a barrel following deadly strikes on Riyadh’s international airport over the weekend.The rise in oil prices was partly contained after US President Donald Trump said Ukraine and Russia had agreed to halt attacks on each other’s energy infrastructure following a US diesel-supply deal with Moscow. Details of the agreement remained unclear, while the proposal faced opposition in Washington.The S&P 500 communication-services sector gained 1.1%, supported by a 3.2% rise in Meta Platforms. Energy stocks advanced 1.8%, while heavyweight technology shares fell 0.2%.Salesforce jumped 3.5% after BofA Global Research double-upgraded the stock to “buy” from “underperform,” helping the Dow reach a near three-week high, Reuters reported.Corporate earnings are moving to the centre of investors’ attention. Aggregate S&P 500 profits are expected to surge 30.6% in the third quarter, according to LSEG IBES data.Major banks, including Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase, are scheduled to begin reporting results on Tuesday.“The big themes to watch in earnings season include how companies are deploying and profiting from AI,” Clark Bellin, president and chief investment officer at Bellwether Wealth, told Reuters.Bellin said investors would also focus on whether companies can preserve or increase their pricing power and how they are managing a surge in borrowing costs that was not a significant concern a year ago.Treasury yields reached 24-year highs earlier this month as elevated energy costs fuelled concerns that inflation could remain persistent and keep Fed policymakers hawkish. The US Treasury market was closed on Monday for Columbus Day.Recent reports showing softer-than-expected inflation and weaker employment growth have reduced expectations of an imminent rate increase. That has increased the importance of consumer and producer inflation readings and retail sales data due later this week.Traders see a 19% chance that the Fed will raise rates this month, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Remarks from Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack were also due later in the day.Among individual stocks, Chipotle Mexican Grill fell 3% after Starbucks said it was not seeking to acquire the restaurant chain.Quantum-computing company IonQ declined 4.7% after agreeing to buy privately held cybersecurity firm Elisity in an all-stock transaction valued at up to $1.3 billion.IREN rose 2% after The Information reported that Anthropic had entered into a multiyear cloud agreement with the data-centre operator.Declining stocks outnumbered advancers by 1.25 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.44 to 1 on the Nasdaq.The S&P 500 registered nine new 52-week highs and four new lows, while the Nasdaq Composite recorded 23 new highs and 123 new lows.(Disclaimer: This article is based on inputs from agencies. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

Apollo's Torsten Slok says AI boom is draining housing and auto sectors, forcing the Fed to keep rates higher for longer Torsten Slok, Apollo Global Management's chief economist, is warning of the AI boom …

Apollo's Torsten Slok says AI boom is draining housing and auto sectors, forcing the Fed to keep rates higher for longer Torsten Slok, Apollo Global Management's chief economist, is warning of the AI boom sucking up workers and capital expenditures from other… Apollo's Torsten Slok says AI boom is draining housing and auto sectors, forcing the Fed to keep rates higher for longerTorsten Slok, Apollo Global Management's chief economist, is warning of the AI …

So much for bank stocks loving higher interest rates. That old saw is being completely ignored ahead of earnings from big banks, which kick off this week with numbers out of JPMorgan (JPM), Bank …

So much for bank stocks loving higher interest rates. That old saw is being completely ignored ahead of earnings from big banks, which kick off this week with numbers out of JPMorgan (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), Goldman Sachs (GS), and Wells Fargo (WFC). Sha… So much for bank stocks loving higher interest rates.That old saw is being completely ignored ahead of earnings from big banks, which kick off this week with numbers out of JPMorgan (JPM), Bank of Am…

Higher interest rates are on everyone's mind — but one under-the-radar recession signal suggests Fed rate cuts could be around the corner. Longtime Wall Street strategist Jim Paulsen, the former chief investment strategist of …

Higher interest rates are on everyone's mind — but one under-the-radar recession signal suggests Fed rate cuts could be around the corner. Longtime Wall Street strategist Jim Paulsen, the former chief investment strategist of The Leuthold Group, says the US economy is heading for a slowdown. Eventually, economic weakness may prompt the central bank to slash rates, Paulsen said, pointing to one economic indicator in particular: the Walmart Recession Signal, which measures Walmart's stock price to a global basket of luxury stocks. A spike in the Walmart Recession Signal has historically preceded drops in the Fed funds rate. Jim Paulsen It's a reflection of "economic stress" and consumer weakness Paulsen said, as Walmart's stock tends to outperform luxury stocks when US shoppers are tightening their budgets and turning to discount retailers. The gauge has also historically been a reliable signal for when the US economy is headed toward a recession and when the Fed is about to dial down interest rates to prop up growth. The Walmart Recession Signal has spiked leading up to the last four recessions, and a spike has also preceded every Fed easing cycle since 1990, Paulsen said, citing his analysis of Walmart's relative performance and the Fed funds rate. The Fed recently embarked on a fresh tightening cycle, lifting its target rate by 25 basis points in September. Central bankers have signaled they're looking to keep a lid on inflation, given the recent strength in the labor market and inflationary pressures stemming from higher oil prices. While Walmart's stock has underperformed from May to August of this year, "signaling improved consumer health," that appears to have changed recently. Since August, Walmart has outpaced the S&P 500 Global Luxury Stock Price Index by around 21%, Paulsen estimated, suggesting consumers have changed their habits in recent months. Walmart shares are up 8% from their low in late August. "The relative performance of Walmart's stock is telling a different story. One of renewed economic weakness in the coming months which could force policy officials to return to accommodative actions and once again begin cutting the Funds rate," Paulsen wrote in a Substack note on Monday. "The WRS is but a single indicator and is not necessarily the definitive voice. Nonetheless, its historical ability to lead real GDP growth, the unemployment rate, and Federal Reserve actions has been instructive and probably should not be ignored," he added.

They weren’t the kind of policies that generated front-page headlines, but Joe Biden was practically obsessed with consumer benefits during his presidency. From bank fees to medical debt, credit card fees to student loans, …

They weren’t the kind of policies that generated front-page headlines, but Joe Biden was practically obsessed with consumer benefits during his presidency. From bank fees to medical debt, credit card fees to student loans, the Biden White House couldn’t magic… They werent the kind of policies that generated front-page headlines, but Joe Biden was practically obsessed with consumer benefits during his presidency. From bank fees to medical debt, credit card …

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) trading near a record high doesn't mean all is fine and dandy in the US economy. Quite the contrary for many households as they battle higher costs for gas, fuel, …

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) trading near a record high doesn't mean all is fine and dandy in the US economy. Quite the contrary for many households as they battle higher costs for gas, fuel, and medical insurance this year. Consumer sentiment fell to 46.3 in October, down 1.8 points from September's reading of 48.1, according to the latest from the University of Michigan. The result represented a five-month low. Pressured household finances have appeared in the crop of third quarter earnings reports from packaged food companies. Food and beverage giant PepsiCo (PEP) slashed its full-year profit outlook last week. That came on the heels of spice-maker McCormick (MKC) reporting sluggish demand in its most recent quarter. "We don't expect the consumer to suddenly become in a much better place in the next 12 to 18 months," PepsiCo CEO Ramon Laguarta said on the company's earnings call. Here are several charts from the Goldman Sachs team that shed light on the realities facing many US households, and why a lot of consumer companies are struggling. Household debt is on the rise With the cost of living remaining high, households are taking on more debt to get by. Household debt now tops $18 trillion. Debt moving higher. · Goldman Sachs Personal savings are dwindling In addition to taking on more debt, households have dipped into their savings to spend on what they need to spend on. Personal savings rates are below the long-term average. Read more: How to protect your savings against inflation Savings rates on the decline. · Goldman Sachs Stagnant wages Inflation has eaten up worker wages. In September, average hourly earnings rose just 0.1% month over month and 3% year over year, according to Labor Department data. Government data found that, in August, inflation increased 3.4% year over year. Wages under pressure too. · Goldman Sachs Brian Sozzi is Yahoo Finance's Executive Editor, host of the Sozzi Unleashed morning show, the ' Power Players With Brian Sozzi' podcast and a member of Yahoo Finance's editorial leadership team. Follow Sozzi on X @BrianSozzi , Instagram , and LinkedIn . Tips on stories? Email brian.sozzi@yahoofinance.com. Click here for in-depth analysis of the latest stock market news and events moving stock prices

Two wallets tied to the foundation moved roughly $11.13 million in ETH to the exchange, continuing a decade-long pattern Two wallets linked to the Ethereum Foundation moved 4,393 ETH to Kraken on October 12, …

Two wallets tied to the foundation moved roughly $11.13 million in ETH to the exchange, continuing a decade-long pattern Two wallets linked to the Ethereum Foundation moved 4,393 ETH to Kraken on October 12, 2026. At the time of the transfer, that stack was worth approximately $11.13 million. The move was flagged by on-chain tracker EmberCN and picked up by outlets including TechFlow and BlockBeats. Neither the foundation nor Kraken has said anything publicly about it. Following the coins The two sending addresses were identified as 0x4c4…2b94 and 0x999…0229. Together, they accounted for the full 4,393 ETH that landed on Kraken. One of those wallets has a long history. In 2016, it received 59,751 ETH from an Ethereum Foundation address. Over the following ten years, that same wallet has routed 49,751 ETH to Kraken. Advertisement The research ties that ETH to an average price of approximately $658 per coin. The gap between what the wallet received and what it has sent to Kraken works out to 10,000 ETH. The available on-chain data does not specify where that remainder sits today. The news moving money, markets, and the world—before your day starts. Daily. Free. Join 34,000+ readers across crypto, finance, and policy. Email address Subscribe free We respect your privacy. Unsubscribe anytime. This transfer also does not stand alone. EmberCN-style monitoring has caught similar flows from foundation-linked addresses to Kraken in May and August of 2026, as well as in late 2025. Those earlier movements included both larger transfers and smaller test transactions. Why the Ethereum Foundation keeps showing up at Kraken The Ethereum Foundation is the nonprofit that has supported Ethereum’s development since its early days. Historically, the foundation has sent funds to centralized exchanges such as Kraken for various operational purposes. Without a statement from the foundation, the exact purpose of this batch remains unclear. The research describes these flows as potential operational activity, possibly connected to future projects or liquidity needs. What this means for ETH holders and the market Prior transfers of this kind have drawn attention from the analytics community without typically producing immediate market impact. Transfers in late 2025, May 2026, August 2026, and now October 2026 suggest a steady cadence of treasury activity. Observers will look for any public explanation from the foundation, any follow-up transfers from the same two addresses, and whether the 10,000 ETH gap from the 2016 allocation shows up anywhere.