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Originally published on October 2, 2026 By Łukasz Zembik The US labor market is losing momentum, as confirmed by Friday’s NFP report. Weaker hiring and softer wage growth reduce pressure on the Fed to …

Originally published on October 2, 2026 By Łukasz Zembik The US labor market is losing momentum, as confirmed by Friday’s NFP report. Weaker hiring and softer wage growth reduce pressure on the Fed to raise interest rates. In This article was written by Originally published on October 2, 2026By ukasz ZembikThe US labor market is losing momentum, as confirmed by Fridays NFP report. Weaker hiring and softer wage growth reduce pressure on the Fed to ra…

Investing.com-- Bitcoin traded above $85,000 on Monday after briefly climbing near $87,000, as investors weighed weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data against still-elevated Treasury yields and persistent inflation concerns. Bitcoin was last up around 1.1% at …

Investing.com-- Bitcoin traded above $85,000 on Monday after briefly climbing near $87,000, as investors weighed weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data against still-elevated Treasury yields and persistent inflation concerns. Bitcoin was last up around 1.1% at $… Investing.com-- Bitcoin traded above $85,000 on Monday after briefly climbing near $87,000, as investors weighed weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data against still-elevated Treasury yields and persist…

Asian stocks rise as weak U.S. jobs data eases Fed hike bets; Japan surgesInvesting.com Asian Shares Rise as Fed Bets Ease, Bonds Edge Up: Markets WrapBloomberg.com Euro pummelled by France’s debt burden; stocks mixed …

Asian stocks rise as weak U.S. jobs data eases Fed hike bets; Japan surgesInvesting.com Asian Shares Rise as Fed Bets Ease, Bonds Edge Up: Markets WrapBloomberg.com Euro pummelled by France’s debt burden; stocks mixed By ReutersInvesting.com Tokyo shares are … The Fine Print: The following comments are owned by whoever posted them. We are not responsible for them in any way.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said recent jobs data indicated a steady US labour market, while persistent inflation remains the bigger policy concern. He said the Fed’s options remain open and policymakers need stronger …

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said recent jobs data indicated a steady US labour market, while persistent inflation remains the bigger policy concern. He said the Fed’s options remain open and policymakers need stronger evidence that inflation is movi… Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee said that recent employment data suggested the U.S. labour market remained steady, while persistent inflation was still the bigger concern for moneta…

Federal Reserve officials have signalled they have time to assess incoming economic data before making further changes to interest rates. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said September’s weak employment report was broadly consistent with …

Federal Reserve officials have signalled they have time to assess incoming economic data before making further changes to interest rates. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said September’s weak employment report was broadly consistent with recent labour-ma… Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack said the September US employment report was broadly consistent with recent hiring trends, giving the central bank time to assess incoming data…

TOKYO - Tokyo stocks surged on October 5, with the Nikkei 225 closing at 69,947, up 1,637 points, after briefly recovering the 70,000 level for the first time in about three months, as weak …

TOKYO - Tokyo stocks surged on October 5, with the Nikkei 225 closing at 69,947, up 1,637 points, after briefly recovering the 70,000 level for the first time in about three months, as weak U.S. jobs data reduced expectations for an October Federal Reserve rate hike and buying spread through artificial intelligence and semiconductor-related shares. The broader TOPIX rose 54.22 points to 4,145.22, showing that the rally was not limited to the price-weighted Nikkei. However, the day’s strongest momentum was concentrated in AI, semiconductor, electronic-component and high-priced growth names, which have again become the main drivers of Tokyo’s market. The Nikkei opened sharply higher and quickly moved into a powerful risk-on pattern. During the morning session, the index briefly rose above 70,000, recovering that level during trading hours for the first time in about three months. Profit-taking emerged later, but the index still closed just below 70,000 at 69,947. The rally followed the release of weaker-than-expected U.S. employment data at the end of last week. The slowdown in U.S. job growth led investors to scale back expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise rates again at its October meeting, easing pressure on global growth shares. The shift in Fed expectations gave investors a reason to return to AI and semiconductor shares. These stocks are sensitive to interest rates because much of their valuation depends on future earnings growth. When rate-hike expectations fall, investors become more willing to buy high-growth technology names. The U.S. market provided the first push. American technology shares rose after the jobs data, and that momentum carried into Tokyo. Semiconductor, AI and electronic-component shares drew heavy buying from the opening bell. Tokyo Electron, Advantest, SoftBank Group, TDK and other AI-linked names were central to the advance. Investors bought companies tied to advanced chipmaking equipment, chip testing, electronic components, data-center infrastructure and AI platforms. Tokyo Electron rose strongly as investors returned to semiconductor-equipment shares. The company remains one of Japan’s most important players in global chipmaking and a key gauge of confidence in AI-related capital investment. Advantest also gained, benefiting from renewed demand for stocks linked to advanced AI chip testing. Because of its heavy weighting in the Nikkei, the stock’s movement has an outsized impact on the headline index. SoftBank Group rose as investors again bought Tokyo’s most visible proxy for global AI investment. The company remains closely watched because of its exposure to OpenAI, Arm, robotics, digital infrastructure and other large-scale technology platforms. TDK and other electronic-component shares also attracted buying. Demand for AI servers, data centers, communications systems and advanced devices continues to support the broader component supply chain. Kioxia Holdings remained an important gauge of memory-sector confidence. The stock rose only modestly compared with some other AI names, reflecting continued caution after its sharp swings earlier this year. Even so, its participation helped support the broader AI trade. The October 5 session showed that Tokyo’s market remains highly responsive to the global AI cycle. When U.S. technology shares rise and rate fears ease, Japanese semiconductor and AI infrastructure names can climb quickly because they sit at key points in the global supply chain. The rally also came as crude oil futures fell, helping investor sentiment. Lower oil prices reduce inflation pressure and ease concerns over energy costs for households and companies. For Japan, lower oil is especially important because the country imports most of its energy. Cheaper crude helps reduce pressure on gasoline, electricity, aviation fuel, shipping, logistics, chemicals and manufacturing. Still, oil remains high enough to matter. Any renewed Middle East escalation or disruption to shipping routes could quickly revive inflation concerns, especially while the yen remains weak. The yen weakened slightly from the end of last week, with the dollar trading around the 158-yen range. The move reflected the view that U.S. interest rates may not rise immediately in October, but that the broader U.S. tightening path is not finished. A weak yen supports exporters by increasing the yen value of overseas earnings. It helps automakers, machinery makers, electronics companies and precision-equipment manufacturers. However, yen weakness remains a burden for households and importers because it raises the cost of energy, food, raw materials and consumer goods. That keeps currency policy and inflation pressure central to Japan’s market outlook. The Bank of Japan remains a major focus after raising its policy rate to 1.25% in September. The rate hike was an important step in normalization, but the yen has remained weak because investors judged the BOJ’s guidance as cautious. The market now wants to know whether the BOJ will move again in October, December or early 2027. A faster tightening path would support the yen and help contain import inflation, but it could also push Japanese government bond yields higher and pressure equities. A slower path would support equities in the short term but could leave the yen weak and keep imported inflation alive. This is the policy dilemma facing the BOJ and the government as the market begins the first full week of October. BOJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida added another layer to the discussion on October 5, saying the global AI boom may have eased financial conditions by boosting demand and asset prices, while warning of market risks if expected profits fail to materialize. His comments were important because they connected the AI rally directly to monetary-policy conditions. If AI-related asset gains make financial conditions easier, the BOJ may need to consider that effect when judging inflation, investment and the neutral rate. At the same time, Uchida’s warning reflected a risk that investors have been discussing for weeks: the AI trade remains powerful but vulnerable. If earnings do not justify expectations, or if data-center bottlenecks, power constraints, regulation or safety concerns slow investment, the market could face a sharp pullback. That risk did not stop buying on October 5. The immediate market reaction was dominated by Fed pause hopes, lower oil and a strong U.S. technology lead. But the BOJ’s warning suggests policymakers are watching the AI boom carefully. The week ahead will test whether the rally can broaden and hold. The Nikkei is now close to 70,000 again, and investors will be watching whether it can close above that level or whether profit-taking appears as it did during several September rallies. The first key domestic event is Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s policy message at the start of the week. Investors will look for details on household relief, fiscal discipline, defense spending and strategic investment. The government’s growth strategy remains central to market sentiment. It calls for large-scale public and private investment through fiscal 2040 in semiconductors, artificial intelligence, energy security, defense, shipbuilding, robotics, space and other strategic sectors. That agenda supports many of the stocks that led the October 5 rally. Chip equipment, advanced materials, electronic components, optical networks, data-center infrastructure and power systems all sit inside Japan’s strategic growth story. However, the same agenda raises fiscal questions. Higher interest rates have increased government debt-servicing costs, and investors want evidence that Japan can fund household support and industrial policy without undermining fiscal credibility. Japanese government bond yields therefore remain a key risk. The 10-year yield has recently been near multi-decade highs, while super-long yields remain under pressure. A stable bond market would support the equity rally, but a renewed yield rise could pressure high-valuation technology stocks. Banks and insurers will also remain important this week. Higher interest rates can improve lending margins and investment income, but financial shares may struggle if bond yields move too abruptly or if investors decide that the BOJ will move more slowly than expected. The Reuters Tankan and wage data due this week will help shape expectations for the BOJ’s next move. If corporate sentiment and wages remain firm, investors may raise expectations for another rate hike. If the data weaken, the BOJ may be seen as having more room to wait. Japan’s official BOJ Tankan released last week showed large manufacturers’ sentiment rising to 24 from 22, the sixth straight monthly improvement in business sentiment. That resilience supports the case that corporate Japan is still benefiting from technology demand, higher pricing power and solid overseas earnings. The week also brings current-account data, household spending figures and machine-tool orders. These will help show whether Japan’s recovery is broadening beyond export and AI-related sectors. Household spending will be especially important because consumers remain under pressure from high prices. Wage growth has improved, but households continue to face elevated costs for groceries, gasoline, electricity, transport and services. If household spending remains weak, it will raise questions about whether wage gains are sufficient to sustain consumption. If spending improves, it would support the BOJ’s view that Japan is moving toward a more durable wage-price cycle. Machine-tool orders will be watched as a guide to manufacturing investment. Strong orders would support the case that companies are still investing in automation, semiconductors, electric vehicles, AI infrastructure and advanced production systems. Fast Retailing’s earnings on October 8 will also be a major domestic focus. The company is one of the Nikkei’s largest components, and its results can influence both retail-sector sentiment and the headline index. Investors will watch Fast Retailing for signs of how consumer demand, overseas sales, currency effects and cost pressures are affecting Japan’s largest apparel retailer. Its guidance may also shape views on domestic consumption and Asian retail demand. Overseas, the Federal Reserve’s September meeting minutes will be released this week. They will be closely read because the Fed raised rates in September but now faces a weaker jobs backdrop. Markets have sharply reduced expectations for an October Fed rate hike, but investors still see a possible December move. The minutes will help clarify how concerned Fed officials are about inflation, oil prices, financial conditions and labor-market weakness. For Japan, the Fed path matters directly through the yen. If investors conclude that the Fed is closer to pausing, the dollar may weaken and the yen could recover. If the minutes suggest further tightening remains likely, the dollar may stay strong and keep pressure on the yen. The dollar-yen rate near 158 remains the most important domestic market signal. Further weakness toward 160 would support exporters but revive intervention and imported-inflation concerns. A rebound toward 153 would ease import costs but could pressure exporters and carry trades. Oil is the second major signal. A sustained fall in crude would help households, companies and the trade balance. A renewed surge would increase inflation pressure and complicate BOJ policy. AI and semiconductor shares are the third signal. If Tokyo Electron, Advantest, SoftBank Group, TDK, Kioxia, Ibiden, Fujikura, Furukawa Electric, Murata Manufacturing, Taiyo Yuden, Lasertec and Kokusai Electric continue rising, the Nikkei may make another attempt to close above 70,000. If profit-taking hits those names, the index could struggle despite support from exporters and value shares. The Nikkei remains heavily influenced by a small group of high-priced technology stocks. TOPIX’s performance will show whether the rally is broadening. A strong TOPIX would indicate buying in banks, insurers, exporters, trading houses, retailers and domestic-demand names. A weak TOPIX would suggest the market is again relying too heavily on AI and semiconductor shares. The October 5 rally was a powerful start to the week, but it also raised the bar for the rest of the market. The Nikkei is now just below 70,000, and investors will need fresh confirmation from U.S. rates, Japanese wages, corporate earnings, oil prices and BOJ signals to justify another leg higher. For now, the market’s message is clear: investors are willing to buy Japan again when Fed pressure eases and AI momentum returns. The test this week is whether that enthusiasm can survive the return of hard data, policy speeches and earnings guidance.

Live Events DATA UNDERPIN ECB RATE HIKE BETS as a Reliable and Trusted News Source Addas a Reliable and Trusted News Source Add Now! (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe …

Live Events DATA UNDERPIN ECB RATE HIKE BETS as a Reliable and Trusted News Source Addas a Reliable and Trusted News Source Add Now! (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our Economic Times WhatsApp channel Bengaluru: Eurozone business activity expanded at its fastest pace in nearly 3-1/2 years in September as demand remained strong despite inflation worries stemming from the Middle East war, according to a private survey which also showed resurgent price pressures.Inflation in the bloc jumped more than expected to 3.8% last month from 3.2% in August on soaring energy costs, raising the risk the European Central Bank will lift interest rates to a higher-than-expected level.But that, alongside a recent surge in bond yields, has so far done little to harm activity. The S&P Global Eurozone Services PMI rose to a 10-month high of 53.0 in September from August's 51.6, in line with a preliminary estimate.The composite index, which combines services and manufacturing, increased to 53.1 from 52.0 in August, its highest since April 2023 and capping the bloc's strongest quarterly performance since the second quarter of 2022.A reading above 50.0 indicates growth."The collective signal from the PMI surveys is one of GDP growing at a 0.4% quarterly rate, with momentum accelerating as we head into the fourth quarter," said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence."Although the drivers of growth vary between countries, across the euro zone as a whole IT-related services are showing especially solid growth, buoyed by AI investments and supported by professional and commercial services growth."Spain was the strongest performer, followed by Ireland, while Germany's recovery accelerated to one of its strongest rates since early 2022. Italy and France recorded modest growth.Services firms reported faster growth in new business, a key gauge of demand, with export orders breaking the streak of 39 months of contraction.Coupled with the strongest rise in factory orders since early 2022, overall new orders grew at their fastest pace in 41 months. Foreign demand was particularly strong, with overseas orders rising at the quickest rate in more than 4-1/2 years.A slowdown in services hiring offset a modest pickup in factory job creation, leaving overall employment growth weaker. Business confidence, however, remained steady.The survey also showed inflation pressures intensifying. Both input and output prices rose at their fastest pace in four months."A renewed upturn in price pressures signalled by the survey meanwhile hints at euro zone inflation running closer to 4% than the ECB's 2% target," added Williamson."Combined with the acceleration of growth indicated by the PMI, the data will spur further speculation of more aggressive monetary policy tightening."Markets are currently pricing in more than two ECB rate hikes by mid-next year.

European shares edged 0.2% higher, recovering from last week’s losses, while French stocks fell amid growing fiscal concerns. The CAC 40 dropped 0.8%, pressured by Schneider Electric’s sharp decline after its $22.6 billion PTC …

European shares edged 0.2% higher, recovering from last week’s losses, while French stocks fell amid growing fiscal concerns. The CAC 40 dropped 0.8%, pressured by Schneider Electric’s sharp decline after its $22.6 billion PTC deal. Investors also tracked sof… European shares edged higher on Monday, recovering some of last week's losses, although French equities came under pressure as concerns over the country's fiscal position weighed on sentiment, accord…

Last month, the BLS reported a stunning gain of 162k jobs in August. Accordingly, economists began to think the job market malaise may finally be thawing. The latest BLS report makes the August data …

Last month, the BLS reported a stunning gain of 162k jobs in August. Accordingly, economists began to think the job market malaise may finally be thawing. The latest BLS report makes the August data seem like a one-off blip versus a trend change. Last Friday’s report showed a pick-up of only 29k jobs, about a third of the consensus, and the unemployment rate climbed to 4.2% from 4.1%. Further pointing to weakness, average hourly earnings edged up five cents to $37.81, a 0.1% gain, which equates to a decline in wages on an inflation-adjusted basis. The revisions to prior data were also poor. August’s reported gain of 162,000 was cut to 133,000. July, already revised down twice, flipped from a gain to a 10,000 loss. Together, the two months are 60,000 lower than previously reported. There were some positives. For instance, labor force participation rose to 61.8% from 61.4%, and the employment-population ratio improved to 59.2%. The higher unemployment rate reflects people entering the workforce, not a wave of job losses. For the Fed, this complicates the case for those members arguing for more. Lorie Logan told an audience last Tuesday she estimates another “50 basis points or more” is needed, citing a labor market “close to most estimates of the lowest sustainable level.” A twelve-month average of 10,000 jobs a month makes that harder to sustain. The market case for more tightening thinned considerably in a few days. As shown below, the odds of the Fed holding rates steady at its next meeting rose from 18% to over 80%. What To Watch Today Earnings Economy The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,722.72, down 0.3% for the week. It’s still trapped inside the range that has held since early August. That range runs from the September 16 closing low near 7,560 up to the August 13 record of 7,798.99. The index sits 0.9% above its 50-DMA at 7,658 and 6.9% above its 200-DMA at 7,224. The 14-day RSI reads 55, squarely neutral. MACD is still positive at about 10 index points, but slipped just below its signal line this week. That’s a mild loss of momentum rather than a breakdown. The Bollinger Bands tell the same story. Price sits about one standard deviation above its 20-day mean of 7,672. The upper 2 SD band is at 7,778, just under the record. Such is the problem with this range. The upper band and the record converge at the points where sellers stepped in on August 13, September 3, and September 21. Until the index can close above that zone, rallies toward 7,800 are places to trim rather than chase. The technical support and resistance levels remain key this week as the Q3 earnings season gears up. All-time highs remain within reach, and support sits immediately below market prices. The bigger issue is underneath the index. Only two of the 11 S&P 500 sectors, technology and energy, closed above their own 50-day moving averages on Friday. Technology sits 7.2% above its average. Real estate (−7.1%), utilities (−6.7%), and financials (−5.8%) sit deep below theirs. The ratio of equal-weight to cap-weight has dropped 4.4% since June 30. That’s a narrow tape. When one sector carries the market while nine others trade below their averages, the index can hold up for a while, but it grows more vulnerable to a stumble in the handful of mega-cap technology names doing the lifting. Technology sits 7.2% above its 50-DMA, and energy 1.3% above. The other nine sectors trade below theirs, led by real estate at −7.1%. Dispersion cuts both ways, though. The skeptics will tell you a market this narrow has to break, and eventually they may be right. However, deeply oversold sectors are exactly where a “broadening” rally would come from. Real estate, utilities, and financials are the groups most hurt by rising yields. They also have the most room to snap back if Friday’s pullback in rates continues. A retreat in the 10-year below 5% would likely do more for market breadth than any earnings report. This week, patience pays at the top of the range. We continue to recommend trimming positions that have run toward the record and rebalancing back to target weights. Pullbacks that hold the 50-DMA near 7,658 are buyable. A close above 7,800 on strong volume would confirm a breakout and open a path toward 8,000. A close below 7,560 would break the range. That’s where we’d raise hedges and tighten stops, with the 200-DMA near 7,224 as the next support. The single level to watch next week is 7,800. Clear it, and the summer consolidation resolves higher. Fail there again, and the range is likely to continue, with the risk tilted toward the 7,560 floor. The Week Ahead Next week is thin on data, but we will get the September FOMC minutes on Wednesday afternoon to better understand the rationale for the Fed’s rate hike. That meeting produced a 12-0 vote, a hike to 3.75-4.00%, and a dot plot that erased the 2027 cut path entirely. It will be interesting to see how many participants shared Lorie Logan’s view that another 50 basis points or more is needed, and how many leaned toward Christopher Waller, who said last month he would lean toward holding. Since that meeting, Core PCE came in at 3.0% against a 3.4% consensus, and September payrolls were weak, as we discussed above. Earnings start in earnest next week, with the banks beginning on October 13. Price Of Happiness: Missing The Things That Matter The “price of happiness” chart came around again recently, and the number attached to it was as confident as ever. One widely shared version, built from a Remitly analysis, ranked 50 countries. The measure: how close the average wage gets to the income where happiness supposedly “plateaus.” Slovenia was the only country where wages cleared the bar. In the U.S., the figure landed at 55.8%, with a “price of happiness” pegged at $134,827, precise to the dollar. The trouble is that the figure doesn’t measure happiness at all, and I can show you that using the exact study the chart is built on. READ MORE… Tweet of the Day Trading Rules With Desktop Printout “Want to achieve better long-term success in managing your portfolio? Here are our 15-trading rules for managing market risks.” Please subscribe to the daily commentary to receive these updates every morning before the opening bell.

The central bank will express its view as early as Oct. 30 in its next quarterly Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices report. The central bank will express its view as early as Oct. …

The central bank will express its view as early as Oct. 30 in its next quarterly Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices report. The central bank will express its view as early as Oct. 30 in its next quarterly Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices report. This story appeared on japantimes.co.jp, 2026-10-05 09:29:00.